What Biden May Bring to the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

• Author: Alzawawy, Muhammad Soliman
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction

The Trump Administration was characterized by its indifference to collective actions in exchange for a greater focus on bilateral relations. The former U.S. president was deemed 'unpredictable' in his foreign policy, as he marginalized the role of NATO and international organizations in managing various issues; the Eastern Mediterranean was no exception. In this article, we aim to study the Biden Administration's main foreign policy objectives toward the Eastern Mediterranean by conducting a content analysis of his speeches and articles, within the framework of the multilateral approach he said he would follow, which includes working with allies in order to strengthen democracy around the world as a central tenet of his foreign policy approach. Biden is also expected to use 'human rights' as a tool with which to prod his rivals in the wider context of emerging powers in the region and the new competition over influence and energy resources.

We can trace another main pillar of Biden's foreign policy doctrine in his rhetoric, that of restoring American leadership, which implies that Biden may use hard power as a tool to deter adversaries; he has stated that he wants to end 'forever wars' and be 'smarter and stronger' by maintaining smaller-scale missions while using diplomacy as the first instrument of American power. (2) Biden also promised to keep NATO's military capabilities sharp, calling on all NATO nations to recommit to their responsibilities as members of a democratic alliance. (3)

In forecasting Biden's paths and the different scenarios that may unfold as he deals with these issues, we will try to answer a number of questions, among them: What is the main American grand strategy toward the Eastern Mediterranean region? To what extent can a multilateral approach affect the path of events in this area? And how will Biden Administration use his 'smart and strong' approach to deal with a more assertive Turkey when it comes to protecting national security in the region?

U.S. Grand Strategy Toward the Eastern Mediterranean

In analyzing the expected American strategy in Biden's era in the Eastern Mediterranean, we have to keep in mind a very important transformation in the international energy landscape, namely that the U.S. has been the foremost producer of energy in the world since 2018; hence, the U.S. has become more of a competitor and a stakeholder than an honest broker and leader of an alliance, although preserving its pattern of alliances still among its top priorities, especially given the more assertive Russian defense and foreign policies toward the region. Losing potential buyers of its military hardware within its alliance is no less dangerous than allowing Russia to manipulate the energy security of its European allies. Nevertheless, being less dependent on foreign energy resources, the U.S. has been able to develop a more relaxed attitude toward the escalating crisis between Turkey and its neighbors in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Turkey has been a cornerstone of the American strategy to contain Russia since the time of the famed Truman Doctrine. Indeed, both Turkey and Greece are pillars of this policy, so resolving their escalating dispute rather than marking Turkey as a rouge state fits more neatly with Biden's doctrine of reviving NATO, implementing multilateralism, and working with allies. In this respect, we can identify the main U.S. strategy objectives in this region of the world today: containing Russia; (5) ensuring energy security for U.S. allies in Europe; avoiding the militarization of regional disputes; keeping Turkey in the Western flank; fostering the newly formed alliance between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel; (6) and having a stake in the lucrative European energy market.

The U.S. is also using its giant oil companies ExxonMobil and Noble Energy in order to assure its presence in the region, as it too is drilling for gas in the area and taking a share in its contracts, while preserving its presence in order to uphold the energy alliance between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, with the help of other European companies, as a new arc of energy in the Eastern Mediterranean. (7) Eastern and Southern Europe remain crucial to the U.S.' Russian containment policy. After the discovery of shale gas reserves in the U.S., the Balkans and energy-poor regions in Europe became a priority for the U.S. energy industry as the U.S. became the world's largest energy provider, surpassing Russia and Qatar. (8) Although the U.S. warns against the militarization of conflicts in the area, Washington relies on weapons exports as a major economic and military dominance policy, and in the wake of Russia's deployment of S-400 missiles in Syria and Turkey's purchase of this system, the U.S. is assisting its Greek and Israeli allies with military hardware and bases and is even increasing its own presence in the region. For the first time since 2016, the U.S. Navy recently deployed two Nimitz-class aircraft carriers to the region in April 2019. (9)

Some speculate that the U.S. is fortifying its alliance with Turkey's rival, Greece, to force Ankara to the negotiation table, as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed a protocol of amendment to the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA) between Greece and the U.S., in October 2019, which relates to the use of Souda Base in Crete, the airbases of Stefano-vikeio and Larissa in central Greece and the port of Alexandroupolis. (10)

The U.S. is trying to prove by this move that it can bypass Turkey's Incirlik airbase and the Bosporus Strait by sending military hardware to its advanced military base in Romania...