What has been is what will be: the 2015 Israeli elections and the state of Turkish-Israeli relations.

• Author: Lindenstrauss, Gallia
• Position: COMMENTARY - Essay

The 2015 parliamentary elections were framed as a choice between being "for Bibi" (incumbent Prime Minister and head of the Likud Party Benjamin Netanyahu) or "against him." Many voters in the end chose the Likud Party because Netanyahu was perceived as more capable of dealing with security issues (i.e., Iran, Hamas, ISIS) than his main opponent from the Zionist Union party, Issac Herzog. (1) The Likud Party was clearly the big winner of the election, receiving 30 mandates (out of 120), and essentially increasing the mandates it received by 50 percent over previous elections. The Labor Party in its current form of the Zionist Union (after uniting with former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni's party, Hatnua) increased its strength from 15 mandates to 24. (2) With almost no movement of votes between Right and Left, the main transformations occurred inside the blocks. While the Likud Party managed to win many votes from the extreme right (Habayit Hayehudi), the Zionist Union failed to weaken the center-left party, Yesh Atid. Another notable development was the formation of a united party among the Arab minority within Israel (Israeli-Palestinians), which received 13 mandates, making it the third largest party in parliament.

Two main trends emerged in the commentaries after the elections in analyzing the results. One highlighted Netanyahu's clever tactics and the Zionist Union's mistakes. The other highlighted the inevitability of the results given the drift in Israeli public opinion toward the right. Ben Meir argues, however, that in fact the right-wing block lost mandates compared to previous elections. (3) A big question is how one defines the Israeli center (which includes Yesh Atid and Kulanu): on the one hand, these parties clearly support, on the whole, the two-state solution; on the other hand, they support this solution in a form that is highly unlikely to be enough for the Palestinian side. Since the Kulanu party, as was anticipated before the election, is critical in forming Netanyahu's new government, the question of what exactly one can expect from the Israeli center is an important one. One caveat, however, is that Kulanu's intense focus on domestic issues (especially their priority of lowering housing prices) means that it is less likely to press Netanyahu on foreign affairs issues (unless, perhaps, Israel faces mounting international pressure due to Netanyahu's right-wing coalition).

Much rests on Netanyahu himself. Ehud Barak, as former Prime Minister and former Defense Minister under Netanyahu, claims that Netanyahu has over the years "developed a mind-set at once pessimistic, passive and anxious ... and on the Palestinian question he grossly ignores the slippery slope awaiting Israel in the form of a one-state solution." (4) In light of Netanyahu's views and his hesitance in taking dramatic measures, as well as his right-wing coalition, it seems unlikely he will initiate major steps in line with the two-state solution. In fact, just prior to the elections (in a move that is seen to have brought him additional votes from the extreme right), he told a journalist, in response to questioning, that if he were re-elected, no Palestinian state would be established. (5) Two days after the elections, Netanyahu backtracked and stated, "I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution. But for that, circumstances have to change." (6)

If Netanyahu does proceed in the unlikely direction of seriously moving ahead in the peace process, he will not be the first Israeli right-winger to do so: it was Likud Prime Minister Menachem Begin who signed the peace treaty with Egypt; Likud Prime Minister Ariel Sharon who disengaged from the Gaza Strip (and later formed the Kadima Party); and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (formerly a Likud Member but at the time in Kadima) who, according to various...