Unveiling the Unseen: The Role of the Gulf over the Sudanese Transition Period.

• Author: Rakipoglu, Mehmet
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction

Even though many commentators argue that the Arab streets are away from any demonstration yearning for political demands after what happened to Syria and Egypt, the latest developments indicate that there is always hope to change the course of the political atmosphere in the Middle East. Since late 2018, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan have witnessed a new wave of protests as part of what many have called 'the second wave of the Arab Spring.' (1) The socio-political aspects of these prove that the Arab revolutions reveal in proper time. Therefore, the view that perceives the Arabs only as an object in terms of democratization appears to be inaccurate in light of the ongoing protests within the region. The people of the Arab streets have repeatedly raised their voices and taken to the streets under autocratic surveillance regimes.

The Sudanese people have been struggling with internal and external actors to transform the country into a democratic state. In December 2018, they began protesting on the streets against Omar al-Bashir, who had intermittently but continuously ruled the country for nearly 30 years, eventually being removed from power by a coup d'etat on April 11, 2019. However, the democratic transition has not been implemented into the state system, therefore many structural obstacles remain, such as economic stagnation and high inflation remain. In addition to these, Sudan has a traditional problem which is the intervention of the army into the country's politics. Since 1956, approximately 40 military coups have taken place on Sudan's political stage. It shows that the army attributes to itself the role of the guardian of Sudan. Therefore, Sudan's top military official, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is decisive in not sharing the government with any other actors, demonstrated by the latest purge against Prime Minister Abdalla Hamduk which was staged on October 25, 2021. The latest muddle is named by many as coup in coup (2) or aimless coup. (3)

This paper focuses on the role of the Gulf, namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, in Sudan's transition period. How were they involved in protests? What are their main motivations? How and with whom do they cooperate? Are they involved in Sudan's internal process due to a power struggle over the geopolitical importance of the country? Based on field research, which was conducted in Khartoum for three months, it is argued that the Sudanese revolution seems to have resulted in the country witnessing a political transition which increases the role and influence of the Gulf in the region, more specifically the UAE and Saudi Arabia. (4) What is unique and worth observing regarding Sudan is the dynamics of the gradual changes in the foreign and domestic political arena. What we argue is that Sudan, between the dilemma of revolution and coup, is more likely to join the pro-authoritarian bloc (5) by approaching and inclining with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Even though the transitional government and the army have divergent political opinions in some cases, the political future of Sudan will likely favor being dependent on the anti-revolutionary camp led by the UAE.

Counter-Revolution

The fear about a democratic revolution that is surrounding the middle eastern monarchies and making them paranoid has not ended even though counter-revolutionary camps have been contending to wipe out the wave of protests. In Libya, putschist Haftar has been backed by those who organized a military coup against the one and only democratically elected president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi. A similar scenario was applied in Syria and Yemen. It appears that so far the anti-revolution camp is focusing on fighting against the democratization of the Middle East; however, this policy hasn't stopped the will of the Arab streets. Since 2018, public demonstrations have once again awakened the fear of the anti-revolutionary camp. In this sense, the UAE and Saudi Arabia felt that they must intervene in the protests and divert them through a process in which only they can gain. Several protesters chanted against the UAE and Saudi Arabia stating that they shouldn't interfere with Sudan's internal affairs. Moreover, they expressed their anger by shouting that they don't want any help from Saudi Arabia and the UAE even if they have to eat only 'falafel and ful or beans'. (6) The protesters have understood that the role of external actors, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will not help them with their concerns. In addition to that, they have demanded from the transition government not to accept $3 billion of economic aid, provided by the UAE and Saudi Arabia who have been active in Sudan for many years. They have gone one step further and requested from the government to freeze or cut the relations and all special, personal ties with these actors. Therefore, the Sudanese people understood that the essential factor that shapes the UAE and Saudi Arabia's Sudan policy is counter-revolution and status quo oriented political agenda. They have been following this policy orientation since the Arab revolution began. In this sense, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have so far supported authoritarian and militarist regimes to take control. They also want to build a new political atmosphere in which Sudan will be dependent on them and only follow the policy which is assigned by them. It is observed that instrumentalizing the oil economy of the Gulf is included in the policy for the investigation of the situation in question. In this sense, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia provide substantial economic aid to Sudan. For example, Saudi Arabia provided financial support to Sudan worth $1.5 billion in 2019. (7)

Revealing the Emirati Role

The Sudanese people have shown their determination throughout the protests. In this sense, they opposed the long-running dictatorial system and now they are resisting the external actors' involvement. The UAE is among the top of those actors. The policy of the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayed towards Sudan is not excluded from his plan to build a new...