Unsustainable Systems: Externalization as a Nonviable Form of Migration Management in the Face of Climate Change.

• Author: Ayaz, Abdullah
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction

In this century, humankind has witnessed the Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times," coming true in various areas and many ways. We all bear witness to the many dimensions of these strange times, including chaos, violent conflict, inequality, and injustice. The sign of the present times is in some ways a regression. The two world wars that broke out in the previous century led to millions of deaths and tremendous suffering, whilst encouraging humanity to pursue peace and stability. International institutions, such as the United Nations (UN), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the European Union (EU), emerged out of that pursuit. At the same time, the assumption that building walls along national borders would ensure any country's safety ceased to be rational, a realization that resulted in the abolishment of many such physical borders. As multiple countries concluded visa liberalization agreements to facilitating the free movement of people, technological advances inspired hope that the twenty-first century was going to be better for humanity -more prosperous and more peaceful. The expectation and hope that geographical borders would disappear and give way to a new order, under which all individuals would receive their fair share of welfare, gave rise to an optimistic approach to the migration process and the migrant identity.

What actually happened in the twenty-first century, however, failed to meet expectations. Indeed, today's global state of affairs does not inspire any hope for the future. Migration has come to be seen as one of the most important global issues within that context. Today, migratory movements occur simultaneously in different parts of the world, for ever-changing reasons. Migrants move from Mexico to the U.S., from Venezuela to Colombia, from Africa to Europe, from the Far East to Australia and New Zealand, from Near Eastern countries to Turkey and Europe, and from Eastern Europe to Western Europe. Although the origins and destinations of those migratory movements differ, the fact remains that they are all part of a single phenomenon. A closer look at the quantitative indicators of global mobility reveals that the total number of migrants reached 281 million in 2020. Meanwhile, the number of forcibly displaced persons exceeded 89 million -including 26.4 million refugees. During the same period, 55 million people were internally displaced. An unprecedented number of these -six million individuals- were compelled to relocate within their own country's borders due to natural disasters; they accounted for 11 percent of all displaced persons in 2020. (1)

In terms of quantitative changes in recent decades, the migrant population soared from 150 million in 2000 to 214 million in 2010 -a 42 percent increase- indicating that migration is occurring continuously and at a higher rate. According to projections based on that historical trend, an estimated 400 million individuals will be migrants by 2050. It is to be noted, however, that the trajectories and patterns of migration, both at the local and global levels, need to be investigated carefully by academics and policymakers alike. (2)

Although migrants account for just 3.6 percent of the global population, the rapid growth of this demographic hints at a contradictory situation visa-vis migratory movements. The first point is that migration has become an absolute necessity due to various economic, political, and social developments, even though people remain generally resistant to leaving their native countries. In addition to worsening economic conditions, wars and civil conflicts, political crises, and disagreements with political authorities, natural disasters -whose impact has been more and more prominent in recent years- are among the driving forces behind migration and contribute significantly to the pace and continuity of migratory movements. At the same time, political developments on a global scale have tended to transform migration from a national issue to a fixed item on the international agenda. Certain developments, such as the Taliban's return to power and the subsequent economic collapse in Afghanistan, which has been the top source of refugees over the last three decades, as well as the military coup in Sudan and regime attacks in Syria, continue to increase the geographical area impacted by migration and exacerbate its attendant problems.

Although migratory movements have different points of origin and destination, they have common causes and motivations. For example, economic considerations factor into migration from Central Asian nations to other countries, just as financial concerns fuel migration from Eastern European states to Western Europe. A closer look at political turmoil as a trigger for migration highlights the case of Myanmar, a Southeast Asian country, where massive human rights violations are causing the Muslim community in the Rakhine State to relocate to nearby countries, starting with Bangladesh. Currently, the largest group of stateless persons, the number of migrants and asylum seekers from the Rakhine State has reached 980,000. Meanwhile, many of the countries that host migrants are source countries themselves: Bangladesh, which hosted more than 860,000 migrants (mostly from the Rakhine State) in 2020, is at the top of that list. (3) Indeed, many countries, including the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, European nations, Australia and New Zealand, are considered popular destinations for migrants from Bangladesh. At the same time, Venezuela, a South American country, plays an important role in generating new migratory movements. According to June 2021 data, approximately 5.6 million Venezuelan citizens have left their country as part of what many observers consider one of the biggest migration crises currently underway. Those individuals have typically relocated to Colombia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, and Brazil. And while migration toward surrounding countries has increased, it remains improbable for individuals who have already migrated to return to their native homelands due to ongoing political and economic crises.

All those experiences and examples of migration serve to demonstrate that a migratory process, spanning many countries, regions, and continents, is continuing globally at an ever-greater speed. As such, there is a worldwide debate underway, at national and international levels, regarding migration as a phenomenon and its proper management. It is necessary to take into consideration that a temporal criterion (e.g., before, during, and after migration) is needed to set priorities in migration management and to create a systematic structure for that purpose. By taking those steps, such as financial assistance for the source countries, resettlement and integration programs in host countries, etc, it would be possible to concentrate on the root causes of migration, to protect the fundamental rights of migrants as well as the rights of host countries during the process of migration, and to adopt practices to ensure that host countries are not disproportionately burdened and that migrants receive their fair share of welfare after resettlement. At this point, one ought to bear in mind that the reasons behind migration tend to be dynamic. Taking into account that a number of recent migratory movements have been triggered by natural disasters and climate change (in addition to economic, political, and social factors) would yield a more complete picture vis-a-vis migration management.

Climate Change: A New Impetus for Migratory Movements

Turmoil, civil strife, war, repressive regimes, and economic hardship tend to be considered the main reasons behind migratory movements. Yet in addition to those factors, natural disasters and climate change are increasingly triggering migration. In recent years, unexpected weather conditions, long periods of drought, and excessive rainfall caused by climate change have forced millions of people to relocate to other countries or other parts of their own state annually. As a result of the ten most financially damaging natural disasters recorded in 2021, more than six million people were compelled to flee their homes. The total cost of that forced relocation exceeded $1.5 trillion. (4)

Climate change, which is already triggering migratory movements in the short term, is expected to be a prominent source of migration in the medium and long term. Given the quantitative size of the migrant population that has already been compelled to relocate due to natural disasters caused by global warming, and the fact that climate change is ongoing and potentially irreversible, the climate crisis shall be a driving force behind migration in the...