Turkey's Buffer Zone in Northern Syria and Its Impact on Irregular Migration.

• Author: Yilmaz, Omer
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction rregular migration has certainly been one of the most important items on the global political agenda in the 21st century. Fleeing war, instability, and economic underdevelopment, many people take huge risks to pursue a safer and more prosperous future by leaving their native lands and relocating to other countries. Turkey's neighborhood has witnessed some of the most striking and tragic repercussions of that development in recent years. Experiencing economic and political instability as well as security problems due to war or internal conflict, many people from countries like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan have been trying to migrate to safer and more prosperous nations in the West. Without a doubt, Turkey has been the most frequently targeted country as part of those migratory movements stemming from the Middle East. In addition to being located on an ancient migration route between the East and the West, the country's stable and robust state structure, together with its history and cultural background, make it a convenient choice for refugees looking for a sanctuary.

In the wake of internal strife, which began in the summer of 2011, Syria emerged as the leading source of migrants trying to relocate to other countries. As domestic tensions further escalated over the following years, the clashes between the regime and the opposition took a violent turn. At the same time, terrorist organizations gained significant power and room for maneuver. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (OHCHR), more than 350,000 people have lost their lives (1) due to the fighting, as instability -together with the power vacuum and the worsening economic situation- forced many to relocate to other parts of Syria or other countries altogether. Accordingly, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that 6.6 million Syrians have left their country since the summer of 2011 to become refugees elsewhere, whereas 6.7 million Syrian nationals were internally displaced. Furthermore, 13.4 million Syrians became dependent on humanitarian aid and protection. (2) This humanitarian disaster in Syria clearly accounts for the fact that the country remains the main source of migrants around the world.

Turkey, which shares the longest land border with Syria among the country's neighbors, was affected by the unfolding tragedy and migratory movements more than any other nation. From the civil war's early days, Ankara implemented an 'open-door' policy toward Syrians fleeing war and acts of terrorism. (3) At the same time, it attempted to persuade the Coalition, which was formed under U.S. leadership to intervene in the Syrian civil war, and eliminate the ISIS threat, and to establish a 'safe zone' in Northern Syria. (4) However, this was to no avail. Indeed, the Obama Administration announced that the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would be Washington's 'red line' (5) -which it then failed to enforce in the wake of a chemical attack, making no attempt to step in and protect the civilian population. (6) Ultimately, due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, close to four million Syrians sought refuge in Turkey. (7)

Meanwhile, the so-called ISIS gained major influence in Turkey's southern neighbors, whilst carrying out a series of bombings, suicide attacks, and mass shootings on Turkish soil between late 2015 and early 2017. In addition to 13 members of Turkey's security forces, these acts of terrorism claimed 315 civilian lives and injured 1,206 people. In response to the group's deliberate targeting of Kilis, a Turkish city near the Syrian border, with rockets and mortars within the first eight months of 2016 and the resulting deaths of 24 people (13 Turks and 11 Syrians), (8) Ankara launched Operation Euphrates Shield on August 24, 2016. (9) The stated purpose of that operation was to protect the lives of Turkish citizens within Turkey's borders, to remove all terrorist groups from the border, and to prevent the 'terror corridor' that the terrorist organization PKK's Syrian component, PYD, attempted to create in northern Syria by linking its 'cantons' to the east of the Euphrates River and the Afrin region. (10) The operation was completed on March 29, 2017, resulting in the killing of more than 3,000 terrorists and the liberation of some 2,000 km (2) of territory. (11)

Likewise, Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch on January 20, 2018, to liberate the Afrin region from the terrorist organization PKK/PYD. Some 90 rocket, missile, and mortar attacks against Turkey's border towns, Kilis and Hatay, resulted in seven deaths and left 107 others injured. The operation lasted two months, resulting in the liberation of that area on March 18. (12) Finally, the Turkish Armed Forces launched Operation Peace Spring on October 9, 2019, in cooperation with the Syrian National Army, and announced that its mission was accomplished by October 23. As a result of these operations, Turkey has liberated approximately 8,234 km (2) of territory in northern Syria with a maximum depth of 30 kilometers from the border, which was previously controlled by terrorist groups. Whereas Operation Euphrates Shield brought security to Jarablus, al-Rai, Soran, Azaz, Marea, Akhtarin, and al-Bab, Operation Olive Branch resulted in the liberation of Afrin. Finally, Operation Peace Spring restored stability in Ras al-Ayn, Tal Abyad, and surrounding areas. (13) More recently, on February 27, 2020, Turkey launched Operation Spring Shield within the de-escalation zone in Idlib. Consequently, the Turkish Armed Forces and the regime's opponents gained control over 3,394 km (2) of territory.

The stated purpose of Turkey's operations into Syria has been to combat terrorism and to ensure the safety of its borders. Another consideration, however, was to take precautions against future waves of migration, which could have certainly undermined the country's domestic stability. (14) After all, the UNHCR states that Turkey continues to host more refugees than any other country in the world, having admitted nearly four million Syrians to its sovereign territory in addition to asylum seekers from other countries. (15) Provided that the current situation already puts a strain on Turkey's capacity, the Turkish authorities assessed that an additional wave of migration from Syria could give rise to a much greater challenge. (16)

This study analyzes Ankara's 'safe zones' in Northern Syria and its policy toward those areas. At the same time, it will attempt to answer the question of whether establishing safe zones in response to the Syrian civil war and the resulting humanitarian crisis was a choice or a necessity for Ankara within the context of irregular migration and border security. Last but not least, the final part is devoted to an assessment of the 'safe zone' policy's prospects.

The Role of Safe Zones in Preventing the Refugee Influx Even though Ankara began to admit Syrian war victims in line with its 'open door' policy in the Syrian civil war early stages, it felt the need to take additional physical precautions at the border. As part of that effort, Turkey sealed 98 percent of its land border with Syria by building a 3-meter-high concrete wall and placing one-meter-high barbed wire on top of that wall -altogether, a four-meterhigh obstacle. It also tightened the security of its southern border with the help of guard towers, patrol roads, reinforced wire nets, lighting systems, active border patrol units, observation balloons, drones, and mobile armored vehicles, in addition to aerial and land surveillance systems, acoustic sensors, remote-controlled weapon systems, anti-laser guns, and auto-recognition software. (17)

Thanks to these precautions, Turkey has made considerable progress in securing its southern border and preventing irregular migration. (18) Keeping in mind the difficulty that defending its territory unilaterally and in the absence of authority across the border, Ankara felt compelled to take cross-border measures on Syrian soil due to the ongoing civil war. Although the main purpose of these steps was to protect its borders and citizens, in line with the principle of self-defense, managing migratory flows was the main source of motivation behind operations Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring, and Operation Spring Shield in Idlib. (19)

Overall, the safe zones have three distinct functions. Primarily, they provide shelter to civilians fleeing regime attacks during periods of escalation, whilst mitigating the pressure on Ankara by discouraging migratory flows toward the Turkish border. The safe zones, which represent a safe haven for the civilian population, reduce the need to approach the Turkish border and serve as a crucial shield against fresh waves of migration. For example, nearly one million people were forced to flee their homes in the Eastern Aleppo countryside and Idlib's southern parts due to Russia's heavy aerial bombardment and simultaneous regime attacks in 2020. (20) Whereas some 550,000 people sought refuge in Idlib, near the Turkish border, the rest relocated to the 'safe zones' that Turkey had established as a result of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch Operations. (21) There is no...