Turkey's Balkan Policy and Its Skeptics.

• Author: Ekinci, Mehmet Ugur
• Position: COMMENTARY - Report

Because of its geographical proximity and historical, social, and cultural ties, the Balkans is a region of particular interest to Turkey. During the last decades, in parallel to its economic growth and foreign policy activism, Turkey has intensified economic relations, public diplomacy, and cultural activities with this region. In the late 2000s, Ankara began playing an active role in regional politics and started important initiatives to establish regional cooperation and mediation, particularly in the Western Balkans. Although its political initiatives slowed down in the aftermath of the Arab spring, Turkey's bilateral relations with Balkan governments have remained reasonably warm while economic, social, and cultural ties have strengthened.

Turkey's engagement with the Balkans has led to different reactions both from inside and outside the region. Every once in a while, skeptical views regarding Turkey's intentions in the Balkans are expressed in the international media. The skeptics' most-voiced claim is that Turkey is undermining the Balkans' stability and Euro-Atlantic integration. Yet Turkey's approach to the region does not provide a justifiable basis for these claims.

What Turkey Does in the Balkans?

During the 2000s, Turkey became an active economic player in the Balkans. Between 2000 and 2018, Turkey's exports to Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, and the ex-Yugoslavian countries increased almost tenfold, and its imports from these countries almost fivefold. (1) While more than 80 percent of Turkey's trade with the region is with EU member countries, trade with the rest of the region has also shown a remarkable increase, thanks to the conclusion of free trade agreements during the 2000s. Turkey's investment stock has exceeded seven billion dollars in Romania and approached two billion dollars in Bulgaria. (2) In the Western Balkans, where Turkish investments were almost nonexistent at the turn of the 2000s, Turkish businesses have become active, making Turkey one of the leading investors in Kosovo and Albania.

Contributing to the Balkans' energy security and interdependence through pipeline construction is another element of Turkey's economic vision regarding the region. The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which was inaugurated in June 2018, connects Caspian gas to Greece, while the TurkStream Pipeline will, when complete, transmit Russian gas to the Balkans.

As the poorest region in Europe, the Balkans' economic vulnerability not only limits Turkey's trade and investment opportunities but also poses an indirect security risk for Turkey, as a potential source of political and social instability. Since the early 1990s, Turkey has consistently provided development aid to the Balkan countries to alleviate infrastructural shortcomings, accelerate development, and improve living standards. From the mid-2000s onwards, the amount of financial assistance has increased considerably and has exceeded one billion dollars in total. The Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA), which is one of Turkey's most active public institutions in the Western Balkans, has provided financial and technical support to small entrepreneurs, particularly in the field of agriculture, while offering contributions to health, education, and infrastructure in less-developed parts of the region. A significant portion of TIKA's budget has been allocated to the restoration of Ottoman buildings and monuments with the aim of reviving the history and increasing tourism in the region. (3)

Since the late 2000s, the volume of tourism between Turkey and the Western Balkans has shown a fairly steady increase. Due to a convergence of factors, such as the conclusion of bilateral visa exemption agreements, active cultural diplomacy, and the popularity of Turkish TV shows and series, Turkey has become one of the most popular tourist destinations for people from the region. Compared to the early 2000s, the annual number of visitors from the Balkans has more than doubled, reaching 4.6 million in 2018.

Education has been among the leading areas in which Turkey has offered its contribution to the region. Turkish government scholarship programs offer university education in Turkey to hundreds of students from the Western Balkans, both at undergraduate and graduate levels. Two major universities in Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia (the International University of Sarajevo and the International Balkan University, respectively) are operating with Turkish funding. The Yunus Emre Institute, which has offices in all Western Balkan countries, concentrates on teaching the Turkish language and culture, while the Maarif Foundation, founded in 2016, has been acquired and opened schools in the region.

Through bilateral agreements, Turkey provides military training, logistics, and technical support for the modernization of Western Balkan military forces. Turkey also supports local police forces through the training of officers and the supplying of equipment.

Turkey also actively contributes to religious education and services for Balkan Muslims. Turkey's Presidency of Religious Affairs and its affiliate, the Diyanet Foundation, maintain strong relations with the Islamic institutions in Balkan countries and support the financing and staffing of religious education and services. They also provide students from the region with financial support for studying in imam-hatip schools and theology departments in Turkey.

As Turkey's economic, social, and cultural relations with the region improved, Turkey took steps to advance its political role in the Western Balkans. During its chairmanship of the Southeast European Cooperation Process (SEECP) in 2009-2010, the Turkish government launched a number of initiatives for resolving political problems and promoting regional cooperation. Two trilateral dialogue mechanisms (Turkey-Bosnia and Herzegovina-Serbia, and Turkey-Bosnia and Herzegovina-Croatia) were launched in this period, and yielded positive results within a short period of time. With these efforts, Turkey drew international attention as an honest broker and a rising political actor in the Western Balkans.

The emergence of political turmoil and security threats in the Middle East diverted Turkey's attention and energy away from the Balkans and prevented the enhancement of the above-mentioned regional political initiatives. Nevertheless, Turkey has been able to maintain strong...