Turkey and the west after the failed coup: beyond suspicion?

• Author: Lesser, Ian
• Position: A Western Perspective

A Defining Moment

Turks of all political persuasions rightly view the failed coup attempt as a watershed moment, and a searing experience for the country. At least 240 people died in these events, with over 2,000 injured. The fact that the attempt occurred in a country with NATO's second largest military establishment, when most Turks and international partners assumed that the time of coups in Turkey had long past, shook assumptions about the stability of the country. Western governments, analysts and opinion shapers were overwhelmingly supportive of Turkey's democratically elected government and the primacy of civilian over military rule. But Washington and Brussels were clearly taken aback by the brazen nature of the coup attempt. Western foreign policy bureaucracies are, by nature, cautious and often slow to respond. They are ill suited to producing the kind of prompt congratulatory messages flowing from Tehran or Moscow. In the case of the EU, any response requires painstaking multinational coordination. There is a default tendency to gather facts and understand what is actually happening before issuing statements. In the case of July 15th and its immediate aftermath, this had the unfortunate effect of encouraging many Turks to believe that American and European leaders were half-hearted in their support for Turkish democracy. This was certainly not the intent, and much has been done since that time to reassure Ankara on this score. Nonetheless, suspicion persists on the Turkish side. It draws on a long tradition of Turkish anxiety about national sovereignty and the intentions of great powers.

American policymakers will be especially sensitive to continued allegations that Washington was somehow involved in or aware of the coup. The most creative of these conspiracy theories have been directed at senior U.S. military officials, but even scholars and analysts have not been immune. The extent to which these ideas hold currency, even among sophisticated Turkish observers, is dismaying to friends of Turkey, and is especially corrosive at a time when security and defense cooperation is becoming more essential. Officials in NATO circles have been troubled by the sudden disappearance of Turkish military and civilian colleagues from positions of responsibility, and there are certainly concerns about the effect of sweeping personnel changes on Turkish defense capacity and habits of cooperation with allies. But this should not be taken as tacit support for coup plotters. The culture of civilian control over the military is deeply ingrained in Western defense establishments. This point cannot be emphasized too strongly.

Some Open Questions

Western observers remain uncertain about what exactly happened on July 15th. The notion that the Gulen movement played a role, perhaps a leading role in the attempt is widely accepted. But many remain unconvinced about the movement's ability to attempt a putsch without some degree of support from other quarters, from opportunists, or from individuals fearing a prospective purge. It may surprise many Turks, but until these dramatic events most of the Western political and policy establishment, even well-informed individuals, had never heard of Fetullah Gulen or his network. It remains an esoteric issue on both sides of the Atlantic. Even among American and European experts on Turkish affairs, there has been little consensus on the nature of the movement or its activities. To the extent that the Turkish government pressures transatlantic partners to shut down Gulenist institutions abroad and to extradite alleged plotters, the demands for direct evidence of Gulenist subversion will grow. Ankara will need to respond to these demands in a convincing manner. The gap between Turkish expectations and Western legal process is likely to remain, and risks continued friction.

A Troubled Context

Recent events in Turkey have unfolded against a backdrop of strained relations with Western partners. The recognition of Turkey's critical geopolitical position has...