Transatlantic Relations in the Age of Donald Trump.

• Author: Kanat, Kilic Bugra
• Position: COMMENTARY - Essay

A Reluctant Ally?

Relations between the U.S. and its allies have been a hot issue in recent years for scholars of international relations. The changing nature and transformation of U.S. foreign policy in its relations with allies have serious implications for different regions around the world, as well as the broader international system. Although this debate has reached a heightened level with the presidency of Donald Trump, the process of U.S. disentanglement from its allies was visible in previous administrations. The unilateralism of the George W. Bush Presidency and the Obama Administration's disregard for allies both generated a serious crisis in the United States' alliance network. Many started to argue that the U.S. was becoming a "reluctant" (1) or an "unreliable" ally. (2) In a recent study, Jakub J. Gyrgiel and A. Wess Mitchell, who is currently serving as the Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, described the current state of affairs between U.S. and allies as an 'advanced crisis' According to them,

Many long-standing U.S. allies believe that the United States, for reasons of either decline or disinterest, is in the process of pulling back from decades-long commitments and inaugurating a multiregional diplomatic and military retrenchment... [A] steady succession of U.S. actions--cancellations of regionally deployed U.S. weapon systems, reductions in forward-deployed U.S. combat units, lessening of U.S. diplomatic support for traditional allies, participation in tacit bilateral bargaining with large authoritarian states, a much-touted but under-resourced Asian "pivot"--have seemed to confirm their suspicions. (3) This change in the alliance behavior of the United States is generating serious repercussions in different parts of the world. In Asia, for instance, U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea are increasingly anxious over how committed the U.S. is to the security agreements it has made with them. In the Middle East, the traditional allies of the U.S. felt abandoned because of the U.S.' disregard for the stability of the region and the security of its allies. In particular, President Obama's 2013 "red line" statement on Syria and his subsequent decision not to fulfill his commitment without informing U.S. allies resulted in one of the most significant credibility problems for the U.S. In Europe as well, the situation was not so different. President Obamas decision to halt the installation of a U.S. missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic generated the same form of anxiety and concern about the future direction of U.S. policy. (4) Obama went so far as to refer to U.S. allies as "free riders" in one of his highly publicized interviews. (5) The unilateralist military interventions of George W. Bush years had been replaced by the unilateral inaction of the Obama Administration. In both cases, the concerns and priorities of U.S. allies were ignored, and many felt that the U.S. had abandoned these countries in a critical juncture of history. Partly in response to these concerns, in both the 2012 (6) and 2016 elections, many candidates for the U.S. presidency asserted that the U.S. had abandoned its allies and isolated itself in international relations.

The election of Donald Trump, who ran his campaign promoting economic protectionism and international isolationism, has vaulted this trend to new heights. President Trump's "Make America Great Again" discourse has underlined the prioritization of the U.S. and placed less emphasis on the security of U.S. allies. As a candidate, Trump's foreign policy platform was not very promising for the future of alliance networks. He criticized U.S. allies in NATO for not contributing sufficiently to the organization and refused to openly commit to defending the Baltic States against an invasion by Russia. (7) He also accused U.S. allies in Asia, such as Japan and South Korea, of burdening the U.S. with high economic costs. (8) After his inauguration, President Trump started to make these arguments more forcefully, while at the same time trying to win the hearts and minds of some of the "traditional allies" in the Middle East; this generated deep suspicion and concern in different parts of the world and made it harder for U.S. allies to manage their relationship with the U.S. Trumps withdrawal from multilateral arrangements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Paris Climate Accord, and the Iranian Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), and his unwillingness to be part of multilateral agreements have been emulated by different allies around the world.

Tensions have also risen between the U.S. and the European Union and its NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico, due to disagreements over trade.

In this time of deteriorating alliances, one of the most critical relationships is the one between the United States and the European Union. While the future of the transatlantic relations has been a serious question of concern since the end of the Cold War, the institutionalized security partnerships, complex economic relations, and common threat perceptions in the U.S. and the EU, such as Russia and terrorism, helped these international actors work together and continue the relationship they had established decades earlier. However, in recent years, the relationship has been exposed to serious difficulties and challenges. Especially in the last two years since President Trumps inauguration, the relationship has become harder to manage. In the aftermath of Trump's election, the concerns of European leaders about him have become clear in their statements expressing concerns about the future of U.S. foreign policy. President Trump's critical rhetoric and scathing statements about various European countries have been an irritant in transatlantic relations, and unpredictability is now considered the defining characteristic of the U.S. attitude towards Europe. Most reports written on the future of transatlantic relations have highlighted uncertainty and unpredictability as the most important feature of the relations. (9)

This unpredictability and uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy is not the only reason behind the...