Theorizing the transformation of Turkish foreign policy.

• Author: Kanat, Kilic Bugra
• Position: Report

As the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) completes a decade in power, one of the most remarkable developments during its tenure has been the adoption of a new and pro-active understanding of foreign policy. The transformation of Turkish foreign policy has become a closely followed focal point, fueling important debates on the underlying reasons, resources, actors, outcomes, and nature of the policy progress. This change has also introduced new challenges to those who have adopted generic models to understand and explain Turkish foreign policy. While observers of Turkish foreign policy have often faced difficulties in following this transformation, academic circles have vigorously tried to formulate models to represent the new nature of Turkish foreign policymaking. This article will examine and discuss the main causes that have complicated the study of Turkish foreign policy during this period. Changes in the nature and conceptualization of the international system--such as the end of the unipolar world, the emergence of new power centers in international relations and domestic transformations in Turkey, including increasing democratization, the emergence of an assertive and attentive public opinion in foreign policy, and dramatic shifts in decision-making mechanisms--will be emphasized as the most significant causes of the difficulty to study Turkish foreign policy during the AK Party decade.

When trying to understand the main causes of Turkish foreign policy's transformation in the last decade, scholars have focused on different mechanisms and factors, resulting in a relatively complex literature. This complexity was the joint outcome of significant changes in different levels of international relations and existing difficulties in studying foreign policy changes, such as a lack of significant methodological and theoretical tools in this field. Although it was not stated exclusively, the first decade of the new millennium was a "long decade" in terms of its impact on the international system, as well as in terms of the developments in Turkish politics and foreign policy. For example, what was expected to be a long, unipolar international system has lasted for only a moment and the US' dominance of the 1990s was challenged from different angles. Particularly, following the war in Iraq and the US' economic meltdown in 2008, scholars of international relations have tried to replace the concept of "unipolarity" with alternatives. During this period, the greatest challenge for scholars was to describe, define, and analyze the foreign policy behavior of regional/ emerging/ and rising powers, like Turkey. Attempts to understand the behavior of these newly emerging centers of gravity in international relations through the lens of Cold War theories resulted in incomplete and inaccurate explanations.

In addition to the changes in the international system, significant regional transformations have also taken place throughout the Middle East. Even before the AK Party gained power, the death of Hafiz Assad and King Hussein paved the way for the emergence of a young leadership in the Middle East, and in many instances, a recalibration and revision of foreign and national security policies of the region's countries. After the electoral victory of the AK Party in November 2002, significant changes took place in the Middle East. The invasion of Iraq triggered "fault lines" in all ethnic and religious seismic zones in the region, leading to a decade-long ongoing civil war in the country, and resulting in the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish entity in the North. Meanwhile, the Middle East witnessed the electoral victory of Hamas in Palestine and the failure once again of the peace process. During the AK Party decade, Turkey emerged as an influential actor in the politics and economy of the Middle East. Trade agreements with neighboring countries, increasing economic and social exchanges with the Gulf countries and diplomatic interventions by the Turkish state regarding the conflicts in the region turned Turkey into a major international player. In the last years of the AK Party decade, the people's movements in the authoritarian states of the region generated a new dynamic that still impacts the regional political equation. The Arab Spring and its aftermath, especially the repercussions in North Africa, the conflict in Syria, and the counterrevolution in Egypt, deeply influenced Turkey's foreign policy. Turkey's previous regional isolationism and non-intervention policies in the conflicts of the Middle East ended during this period. In this context, Turkey launched different initiatives in the region by using new foreign policy tools, such as soft power, public diplomacy, economic diplomacy, and developmental assistance.

Global and regional changes were not the only developments during this decade. Important changes took place in Turkish domestic politics as well. Following decade-long political instability as a result of coalition governments in the 1990s, the AK Party won a landslide electoral victory in November 2002, producing a one-party government. The AK Party launched an assertive reform policy in order to start accession negotiations with the EU that included active civilian control of the military. Foreign policy makers introduced a multidimensional strategy to improve relations with multiple regions and countries at the same time. The combination of democratization in Turkey and its pro-active foreign policy with the revolution of information technology created an attentive and assertive public opinion on foreign policy issues. In turn, this new public opinion has the ability to influence and increase public opinion pressure on decision makers. Furthermore, as the influence of public opinion on Turkish foreign policy increased, various non-governmental organizations and private sector actors have become more involved in the process of foreign policy making. Acting both in coordination and autonomously, NGOs and different business organizations in Turkey launched initiatives in different countries. As the interest of the public grew, the news media boosted its coverage of international developments. Debate shows on foreign policy issues started broadcasting in prime time and foreign policy journalism evolved into a significant dimension of Turkish media.

Finally, foreign policy decision-making mechanisms have undergone significant changes in Turkey. Although the decision-making mechanism remains one of the most unexplored fields of foreign policy studies in Turkey, the increasing leverage of civilian and elected officials in foreign policy making has become more apparent. During the AK Party decade, hegemonic military and civilian bureaucracies in foreign policy and national security policy have gradually shifted to civilian and elected actors. While the reforms in Turkey helped achieve active civilian control of the military, civilian leadership emerged as the predominant decision makers in foreign policy and, consequently, the most important actor in Turkish foreign policy. Civilian political leaders played the most determinative role in foreign policy orientation and international public opinion started to pay attention to the actions and policies of civilian leaders instead of focusing on the statements of the Turkish military.

Taking these changes into account while trying to understand the transformation of Turkish foreign policy has become a difficult endeavor for foreign policy analysts. Simultaneous independent and sometimes interrelated changes across multiple levels have made it especially difficult to control some of the variables while studying these transformations. The 'new' approaches that claimed to have taken these multi-level changes into consideration were either a modification of old paradigms or unable to reach theoretical maturity. In addition, scholars did not always consider the dynamic nature and interactions of these changes in their analyses. Furthermore, the evolution of foreign policy in the last ten years was not fully understood and AK Party foreign policy was presented as linear without revision or modification.

This situation was most apparent when Turkish-American relations were redefined. Studies on the continuously fluctuating Turkish-American relationship have failed to formulate a defining model and, with few exceptions, have not gone beyond simply tracking the ups and downs of bilateral affairs. This has resulted in chronological explanations rather than theoretical innovations to analyze foreign policy changes. Labels created by policymakers to explain relations, such as model partnership, enduring partnership, strategic partnership and partnership for democracy, were adopted by scholars in many instances. This has resulted in a policy driven foreign policy research with no theoretical value.

Transformation in the International System

The AK Party's ten years in power has coincided with a global transformation of the international system. The newly emerging system has caused much heated debate on how it should be defined. During the unipolar juncture of international relations, scholars often discussed how international relations would develop, how inter-governmental relations would be handled, and how alliances would be formed. The United States' triumph during the Cold War helped it emerge as the sole superpower. Through its military and political power, the US proved itself to be the first real global power in human history (1) that can project its influence in any field -including the economy, politics, military and culture. For some, this was the beginning of an era that could continue for decades. (2) Many experts believed that the US was a power impossible to counter, or one friendly and benign enough that it would not require a counter-balancing actor. The concept of "benign power" was the most frequently used concept to define American power...