The Western Balkans in the Transatlantic Security Context: Where Do We Go from Here?

• Author: Dursun-Ozkanca, Oya
• Position: ARTICLE - Report

Introduction

The Western Balkans has traditionally held vital geostrategic importance for European and transatlantic security. The region has experienced great power competition for centuries and typically been referred to as the 'powder keg of Europe.' With the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the region witnessed serious instability and bloodshed in the form of civil wars and ethnic conflicts. Ever since the 1990s, both the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have played an active role in the Western Balkans, significantly contributing to the efforts to establish peace and stability. Besides playing an active role in peacekeeping and peacebuilding missions and providing economic and military aid, ever since the 2000s, the two organizations have offered a membership trajectory to the countries in the region. In fact, in 2004, Slovenia first become a NATO and then an EU member. In 2009, Albania and Croatia became members of NATO. Four years later, in 2013, Croatia became an EU member state. Finally, in 2017, Montenegro became the 29th member of NATO.

North Macedonia has been an EU candidate since 2005, Montenegro since 2010, Serbia since 2012, and Albania since 2014. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo each have a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. Kosovo signed it on October 27, 2015, and Bosnia and Herzegovina concluded a Framework Participation Agreement (FPA) in 2015. Bosnia and Herzegovina subsequently submitted its EU membership application on February 16, 2016. At the timing of the writing of this article, the European Commission was in the process of preparing an opinion on the country's membership application. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered to be potential candidate countries for EU membership, despite the long and arduous road ahead for both.

However, the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans is far from being complete. Montenegro and Serbia are the only two Western Balkan countries that are in accession negotiations with the EU. EU accession negotiations with Montenegro were opened in June 2012. To date, 32 negotiating chapters have been opened, of which three have been provisionally closed. In Serbia's accession negotiations with the EU, 16 out of 35 chapters were opened, two of which have been provisionally closed. The remaining countries, Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, have still not opened accession negotiations with the EU. Albania and North Macedonia are regarded as the next two countries in line for opening accession negotiations, as long as they show progress in the fight against corruption and in reforming their judicial systems. An intergovernmental conference with participation from Albania and North Macedonia is expected by the end of 2019.

On the NATO front, there are two Western Balkan countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, that have indicated their willingness to join the Alliance. Serbia joined NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) Program in December 2006. PfP was initiated in 1994 in order to allow "participants to develop individual relationship with NATO, choosing their own priorities for cooperation, and the level and pace of progress. (1) PfP is seen by some as a de facto waiting room for ultimate NATO membership. Nevertheless, due to its recent history with NATO and close ties with Russia, Serbia has not declared an intention of becoming a NATO member. Kosovo similarly has not declared any aspiration of becoming a PfP Program or NATO member.

The region has continued to maintain its vital strategic importance for Euro-Atlantic actors, first and foremost due to the direct implications of regional stability for European and transatlantic security, stability, and peace. Put simply, due to its geographical proximity and the ties that different actors have with countries within and outside the EU, any instability in the region would spill over and adversely affect Euro-Atlantic interests. This was true in the 1990s and is still true today. Both the EU and NATO still seek to preserve peace and stability in the Western Balkans. A significant change from the early 1990s is the membership trajectory that both institutions offer to the countries in the region. Therefore, integration into the transatlantic community has been added to the goals of preserving peace and stability in the region.

Having said that, from 2004 to 2014, there has been little sustained, high-level Euro-Atlantic engagement in the region, as the EU and NATO were each preoccupied with other pressing agenda items, such as the Eurozone crisis, the immigration crisis, Brexit, Russian aggression, instability in the Middle East and North Africa, and the rise of nationalism/populism. Consequently, even though integration into the EU and NATO has remained a priority for the countries in the region, the reforms, for the most part, have stalled, and the EU's political attention to the Western Balkans has been diverted elsewhere. Despite this, it is important to note that the EU and NATO still continued to maintain peace missions in the region during this time period.

Against the background of a strategic attention vacuum, the region has experienced a number of serious setbacks over the past decade in economic development, democratization, and rule of law, and an overall slowdown in the reform processes toward EU and NATO integration. In the economic realm, markets continue to bear the legacy of the communist era and have proven difficult to transition into functioning capitalist economies. Hence, many remain inefficient and have low competitiveness, low productivity, and a high degree of informality. (2) Even though according to the latest World Bank data there have been some improvements in terms of unemployment figures in the region, these figures still lag considerably behind international standards, and the young and educated are emigrating in search of better opportunities abroad, contributing to brain-drain and loss of human capital. Notably, about one-third of the region's legal residents live outside the region. (3) GDP growth in the region declined to 2.5 percent in 2017, due primarily to slower growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Serbia. (4) There are large external deficits and public debt, as well as infrastructural deficiencies, as noted in most, if not every country's progress reports. Additionally, intervention by outside actors, such as Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, have raised concerns on the part of the transatlantic allies, as these countries were perceived to counter the influence of the EU and NATO.

From 2014 onwards, the attention of the transatlantic actors has consequently returned to the Western Balkans, as the EU recognized that tensions are brewing, economies are stalling, outside actors are intervening, and there is a significant deviation from democratic values and the rule of law in the region. In addition to a grave recognition of the seriousness of the problems experienced in the region, the renewed interest of the Euro-Atlantic actors may also be attributed to the successive migration/refugee waves the region has received from the Middle East and North Africa. As the countries in the Western Balkans region functioned as major transit countries for refugees and immigrants en route to the EU, the urgency of the refugee crisis and the pragmatic need to contain it command immediate attention to the Western Balkans. (5)

As mentioned above, the peace, stability, and welfare of the Western Balkans have direct implications for the stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. A case in point is the phenomenon of foreign fighters that join terrorist organizations in the fight against the Western allies. While the numbers of foreign fighters are quite low, the per capita statistics are high, given the relatively small population sizes of the Western Balkan countries. Moreover, the fact that the region is located along alternative energy routes adds to the significance of the region for European nations as they aspire to reduce their dependence on Russian energy. Adding to the concerns are the disturbing debates over a possible agreement for a land swap or "border correction" between Kosovo and Serbia, and the implications this would carry for peace and stability in the region. Consequently, the strategic importance of the region for transatlantic security has further increased.

There is still much uncertainty and stalemate in terms of the transatlantic integration of the countries in the region. Especially due to the countries' low likelihood of EU accession in the foreseeable future, there seems to be a power vacuum that outside actors are seeking to fill. A unique aspect of the current study is that it provides an analysis of the latest developments in the Western Balkans, examining the implications of the stability in the region for transatlantic security. Another unique aspect is the argument that NATO accession acts as a prelude to an eventual EU accession, ensuring that the countries stay the course of engaging in reforms and contribute to Euro-Atlantic security while confirming their commitment to democracy. (6)

What makes this article unique is its attempt at providing a conceptual and theoretical framework for understanding the involvement of transatlantic actors in the security of the Western Balkans. It seeks to analyze the causes behind the differences in the impact of conditionality powers between the EU and NATO. Accordingly, the article first provides a historical overview of transatlantic integration attempts in the region. It then provides a literature review, followed by an examination of recent developments in the region. Subsequent to a discussion of the implications of the status quo for the Western Balkan countries' prospects for integration into transatlantic security infrastructures, this article examines in detail the...