The Al-Ula GCC Summit: An End to Gulf Rivalry or Just Another Truce?

• Author: Kabalan, Marwan
• Position: COMMENTARY

Roots of the Gulf Crisis

The Gulf crisis began only two days after the May 21, 2017, Riyadh summit, the declared goal of which was to confront terrorism and contain Iran. Co-chaired by Saudi King, Salman Bin Abdulaziz, and former U.S. President, Donald Trump, the summit was attended by representatives from about 50 Arab and Islamic countries. On May 24, the Qatar News Agency (QNA) was hacked and fabricated statements attributed to the Emir of Qatar during a graduation ceremony for cadets at a military college were published. A media campaign against Qatar ensued, culminating in the June 5, 2017 announcement of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt of severing diplomatic ties with Doha. The measures also included closing land, sea, and air access from and to Qatar.

This was not the first crisis between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, yet it was by far the worst. In February 2014, the three Gulf States withdrew their ambassadors from Doha. Disagreement over the 2011 Arab revolutions, and particularly the position on Egypt's 2013 military coup, which overthrew President Mohamed Morsi, was the main cause of the 2014 crisis. Good offices by the late Emir of Kuwait, Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, succeeded in containing the situation. Negotiations pursued over an eight-month period led to the November 2014 Riyadh Agreement and ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain were returned to Qatar. Reconciliation allowed the 35th Gulf summit to convene in Doha in December 2014 with all member states attending. The 2014 Gulf crisis was contained without further punitive measures against Qatar because the three GCC nations were gripped by anxiety over the Obama Administration's policies in the region. Obama's conciliatory approach toward Iran and his obsession with reaching a nuclear agreement with Tehran created a sense of U.S. abandonment amongst the Arab Gulf states. Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed, as a result, to end the crisis with Qatar. Indeed, the two Gulf nations were also in need of Qatar's media, financial and military support as the planning for their military intervention in Yemen was underway following the Houthi takeover of Sanaa in September 2014.

The Trump Factor

The ascendance of Donald Trump to power at the beginning of 2017 had a huge impact on Arab politics. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt saw the end of the Obama tenure as an opportunity to return to a full partnership with Washington D.C., following a period of tension resulting from the Arab spring revolutions and the U.S.-Iran rapprochement. President Trump's declared intention to end the Obama legacy, including the Iran nuclear deal, emboldened the four Arab nations in their endeavor to isolate and weaken Qatar. (3) In fact, President Trump championed the demands of the anti-Qatar alliance. (4) He even appeared to take credit for the move to isolate Qatar, suggesting that it was inspired by his insistence on Gulf rulers during the Riyadh Summit that more is done to combat and restrict the financing of terrorism. (5) "So good to see Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off. They said they would take a hard line on funding (6) ... extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!" President Trump tweeted. (7)

Having acknowledged the centrality of the U.S. position in the crisis, Qatar sought to sway President Trump and eventually change his stance. The last summit meeting that President Trump held with the Emir of Qatar in July 2019 showed the scope of change in Trumps position. The joint statement issued following the meeting at the White House emphasized the "strategic relationship between the two countries." (8) Up until that point, Kuwait's mediation had not succeeded in bringing about any substantial change in the position of the four Arab...