The Turkish stream project in the EU-Russia-Turkey triangle.

• Author: Karagol, Erdal Tanas
• Position: COMMENTARY - Essay

Introduction

The civil war that broke out in Ukraine in 2013 and the Russian invasion of Crimea that followed opened a new page in relations between Russia and the Western world. Cold War tensions have re-emerged through the Ukrainian crisis. The United States of America (USA) and the EU responded immediately by implementing sanctions against Russia. When Russia retaliated by using the energy card because Continental Europe depends on a large scale of Russian energy, it became clear that this type of crisis would continue.

Following the launch of trade barriers against Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Ankara in December 2014 gained importance. After the meeting, Putin announced the cancellation of the South Stream Project, which was planned to carry Russian gas to Europe under the Black Sea, and the start of works for a new pipeline in replacement. Although not a single feasibility report have been done on it so far, the new project, the Turkish Stream, is being closely followed by many, particularly European countries. The connection of the South Stream's new path to Europe via Turkey will set off a new period in Turkey-EU relations as well as Turkey-Russia relations, by virtue of energy-politics.

Transition from the South Stream to the Turkish Stream

When in November 2013, the Ukrainian government did not sign the EU Partnership Agreement and maintained its pro-Russian policies, protests erupted. Demonstrations rapidly spread from the capital Kiev to the rest of the country and climaxed with the overthrow of the government in Ukraine. The incidents afterwards evolved into a civil war between pro-Russian and pro-European groups. (1) A popular vote held in the meantime formalized the military Russian annexation of Crimea and this met with condemnations by countries led by the U.S. and the EU. However, the U.S. and the EU went further and established a series of political and economic sanctions against Russia. These sanctions had immediate repercussions on the Russian economy; the Russian currency, the Ruble, lost value against the American dollar, falling to the lowest level in its record. The Bank of Russia called a radical increase in interest rate, raising interest rates from 10,5 percent to 17 percent in order to ease the impact of the crisis. (2) Companies that are the backbone of the Russian economy took a nose-dive because of the sanctions. The Russian energy giant, Gazprom, financially suffered. The $21 billion profit announced by the company in 2013 dropped to a meager $3 billion in 2014 (86 percent decrease). These numbers are illustrative of the serious impact the sanctions had on the Russian economy. (3)

Russia, hit by heavy financial losses and seeing its indicators slump, tried to retaliate through its energy policies -the most important economic weapon it has at its disposal. The cancellation of the South Stream project to carry Russian gas to Europe across the Black Sea is the first move Russia made against the Western sanctions. As it was expected, on December 2014 during his visit to Ankara, President Putin announced the initiative for the Turkish Stream to transfer an equal amount of natural gas instead of the South Stream Project. The Western media paid a great deal of attention to Putin's announcement regarding the Turkish Stream. The reasons behind the cancellation of the South Stream, 931 kilometers of which were to pass through the Black Sea and 1455 kilometers of which through Continental Europe, and the initiation of the Turkish Stream, which is to consist of four pipelines, have become an issue of concern. Currently, the Blue Stream and the West Pipeline, the two pipelines carrying Russian gas to Turkey, are in use. Although no clarification has been made about the project route in this direction, it was announced that the annual 14-billion cubic meters of the gas for the West Pipeline would be transferred to the Turkish Stream.

Because of the U.S. and the EU sanctions, Russia has begun to change its energy policy in an effort to develop alternatives. Still, although the EU's dependency on Russian gas has given Russia the upper hand, the EU has subsequently diversified its energy sources (renewable energy, shale gas), and this has become a threat for Russia. In addition, Bulgaria has lined itself up with the EU against Russia on the application of sanctions, which is one of the factors that caused the...