The Role of Turkish Drones in Azerbaijan's Increasing Military Effectiveness: An Assessment of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

• Author: Kinik, Hulya
• Position: ARTICLE

Introduction

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War broke out on September 27, 2020, following short-term clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan around Tovuz in July 2020. The war resulted in significant gains for Azerbaijan in the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region and serious losses for the Armenian army. Turkey, which lent military and diplomatic support to Azerbaijan, played a major role in the retaking of Baku's occupied territories in the 44-day operation. Especially after Armenia's attack on Tovuz, Turkey clearly supported Baku, and there was a transition from rhetoric to action in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Many different inventories were made available to Azerbaijan from among the Turkish defense industry's Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). As a result, the status quo established by Russia in the region changed, and Armenia, which Moscow had supported for many years, lost to Azerbaijan in the field.

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, which Turkey had used effectively in operations in Syria and Libya, caused heavy losses in the conflict, especially to air defense systems and mechanized troops. MAM-L-type laser-guided bombs produced by Roketsan, which these UAVs carried, also played a leading role in the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Turkey strengthened its ties with Baku by providing strong support to its ally and strategic partner, especially in the military and political spheres. By supporting Azerbaijan in solving its most significant problem, Turkey's success in the defense industry, which had already increased its credibility in the eyes of its allies and countries in the region, has once again been registered.

The recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh brought Turkey's unmanned aerial vehicles program to the forefront of the global agenda. Before going into detail on Turkish UAVs' leading role in the fighting, the first part of this article will give a brief background of the dispute and the process leading up to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. The second section will examine the factors behind Azerbaijan's decisive victory on national, regional, and international levels. Finally, the study will analyze how Turkish-made UAVs played a multifaceted role in determining the winner of the war and how these vehicles reflect credit on Turkey's status both regionally and internationally.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh has been a disputed territory between the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, like many other territorial disputes, has a multi-faceted nature. Both nationalist and religious claims have been reported to be the causes of the conflict. (2) In some studies, ethnicity is also referred to as an excuse used by both parties for ethnic cleansing and forced migration. (3) Religious beliefs, ethnicity, and factors associated with the Soviet past (borders, institutions, etc.) increase the complexity of the conflict. Both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides construct their arguments on different grounds and, as a result, communicate a different narrative about the conflict.

Many alternatives have been put forward to find a solution to the conflict over the years. These include a step-by-step solution, a package solution, a common state, incorporation of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan with the highest level of autonomy and delaying efforts to settle its legal status until after finding a solution to all the other issues. Despite these efforts, no peace settlement had been achieved between the conflicting parties. (4) A key barrier to resolving the conflict is the fact that both sides consider the problem absolutely in terms of territory; however, there is no universally recognized definition of the territory in question. Both parties define the physical territory differently based on political and historical associations and even future meanings. (5)

After the armistice reached in 1994, the most intensive clashes took place in April 2016, also known as the 'Four-Day War,' which was the most serious escalation in the conflict not only in terms of deaths but also in terms of military hardware. The escalation brought Azerbaijani and Armenian forces the closest to an all-out war in Nagorno-Karabakh since the 1994 armistice. (6) The Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), co-chaired by the U.S., France, and Russia, had launched some mediation initiatives in 1994, but it was not successful in finding a lasting solution. Neither the Armenians nor the Azerbaijanis accepted the proposals of the Minsk Group, (7) and the Four-day war brought no change to the status-quo. The conflicting parties kept on investing in military hardware, longing for a change in the status-quo by means of an inter-state war. Finally, with overt support provided by Turkey, its strategic ally, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale war in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 27, 2020.

The clashes that arose due to the dispute over the control of Nagorno-Karabakh led to thousands of casualties on both sides and lasted about one and a half months; the conflict ended with the agreement announced on November 10, 2020. After Azerbaijan captured the strategically important city of Shusha, the Yerevan Administration had to admit defeat and withdraw from Karabakh completely. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the agreement was painful for Armenian citizens, but because of the course of the war and the insistence of the army, he took this decision. With a Moscow-brokered peace deal signed between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the status quo that had prevailed in the South Caucasus for 28 years was disrupted and a new process has begun. (8) Within the framework of the agreement, Azerbaijan not only protected Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Kubatli, which it liberated from occupation, but made Armenia agree to withdraw from the cities of Aghdam, Lachin, and Kelbajar, and a withdrawal schedule was determined accordingly. Thus, Azerbaijan liberated seven regions apart from Nagorno-Karabakh from occupation and managed to reclaim some of the territories it had lost in the first conflict through both war and diplomacy. (9)

Several factors help explain Azerbaijan's military victory, but two of them are considered by observers to be 'magic bullets:' the substantial role of the UAVs supplied by Turkey and Israel, and Turkish senior military personnel's advisory role in Azerbaijan's operational plans and command. (10) The point to be emphasized is that while the first war was between two armies built on a Soviet military legacy, the second occurred between an army still living in the previous century versus a modern army with western standards. (11) The second conflict was different, according to several analysts and former diplomats, because Turkey offered more direct support to Azerbaijan, and because of the scale of the fighting. (12)

Turkey and Azerbaijan have a special bilateral relationship, inspired by ethnic, cultural, religious, and linguistic affinities, and often echoed by the slogan 'one nation, two states.' Turkey provided its strategic partner with all of its resources after the first Armenian attack on the important energy center, Tovuz; Turkey's support is one of the most significant factors that contributed to the resolution of the dispute with a military victory. (13) Based on the Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance of 2010, signed between Azerbaijan and Turkey, the two countries have pledged that they will support each other 'by all possible means in case of 'aggression' by a third party, and have decided to hold joint military exercises. (14) In keeping with that agreement, Turkey provided political, military, and diplomatic support to Azerbaijan throughout the conflict. The Turkish defense industry's UAVs, as well as many other products, were made available to Azerbaijan, turning the course of the war significantly in the latter's favor and providing Azerbaijan with a military superiority difficult to match in the field. (15)

Factors behind Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory

Although the conflict had been simmering for thirty-two years, as of September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan had found very favorable ground for an operation to take its occupied territories back. The reasons behind the implementation of the operation and its conclusion in favor of Azerbaijan can be explained by factors on the national, regional, and international levels. First, the option of war had begun to be mentioned quite frequently by Azerbaijan in recent years, especially due to the failure of almost all negotiations. Azerbaijan's political status had strengthened since the early 1990s, and the Azerbaijani army had been transformed into a well-trained, disciplined, professional, and well-equipped force in recent years. The main factor that brought Azerbaijan to victory in Karabakh was undoubtedly its military superiority over Armenia. When the military forces and weapon systems of the two countries are compared, this superiority can be clearly seen. (16)

When the armament attempts of the two parties prior to the conflict are examined, it is evident that Azerbaijan gave priority to increasing the effectiveness of the maneuvering and fire support elements of its Land Forces and took steps to improve the force structure of its Air Force. Azerbaijan had acquired UAVs of almost all types, main battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, attack helicopters, various types of mortars, artillery and multi-barreled rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, ballistic missiles, various air defense systems, fighter/bombers, and close support aircraft. Many projects had been implemented for the modernization of existing systems. Armenia had also made defense purchases, primarily consisting of main...