The Rise of New Powers in World Politics: Russia, China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization/ Dunya Politikasinda Yeni Guclerin Yukselisi: Rusya, Cin ve Sangay Isbirligi Orgutu.

• Author: Kocamaz, Sinem Unaldilar
• Position: Report

Introduction

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a nontraditional regional organization that serves many interests and power games, consolidating a new battlefield for East-West confrontation in Central Asia. The formal aims of this organization are countering international terrorism, ethnic separatism, and religious extremism. Solving regional problems and institutionalizing exchanges in the economy, trade, culture, and education are also basic formal aims of this organization. However, the SCO is more than a regional organization. In 2001, when leaders from China, Russia and the Central Asian (CA) states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan decided to found this organization, it initially targeted the internal security problems of the region. However, the resurgence and revival of Russia and China in the international system changed the vision of the SCO. In this framework, the SCO became an institutional tool to pursue soft balancing policies against the US.

Russia tries to create geopolitical pluralism, reflecting an emerging multipolarity that can be used in interregional interactions, including the SCO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Through soft balancing policies, both the SCO and other Asian regional organizations have constrained a multipolar world to replace the disorder of an unbalanced unipolar world under US leadership. China also pursued the same policy by using all of the benefits of being an economic power. China has taken a more proactive approach through regional integrations such as the ASEAN. The SCO is another vital tool for China to pursue this kind of foreign policy activism in Central Asia. China has increased its connectivity with CA through bilateral and mega free-trade agreements as well as through the provision of strategic credits and loans.

The other important aspect of the expanded vision of the SCO is creating anti- Western norms. Through the SCO, Russia and China created their own common norms that differ from Western normative preferences. This identity creation process is related to their claim to be resurgent great powers. The global order has been founded on Western norms, but China and Russia share other common norms such as non-interference, state sovereignty, the preservation of the political status quo, territorial integrity, and state security. In this framework these powers have tried to create an anti- Western type of collective identity and share a normative preference for regime stability and state sovereignty. This common attitude in terms of non-interference can be observable in the cases of both the Crimea and Syria.

In this context, this article will evaluate the collboration of Russia and China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in terms of its ability to balance the US. In this way, the efficiency of the SCO as a tool or mechanism of soft balancing will be examined. The first part of the article will draw on a theoretical framework through soft balancing and analyze the clash between the US and Russo-Chinese interests in Central Asia. Then, the capabilities of the SCO as a regional security organization and influence of Russia in terms of security will be explored. The second part of the article will discuss economic relations, analyzing global and bilateral economic partnerships against Washington's global agenda. This part will focus on China's economic rise and expansion and its usage of the SCO as an umbrella organization. Additionally, the article will examine the importance of bilateral energy agreements and trade routes projects such as the One Belt One Road (OBOR). Lastly, the "Shanghai Spirit" and challenges to the SCO in terms of creating an identity and solid alliance will be discussed.

Theoretical Framework: Soft Balancing Through Regional Multilateral Institutions

In 26 April 1996, with the signing of the 'Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions', China, Russia, and Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) constructed a new multilateral security organization known as the 'Shanghai Five'. After the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the organization the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The SCO has gained international visibility since 2001 in order to establish mutual trust and dependency among member countries. The Central Asian regimes accepted the SCO as an important tool for securing their regimes. On the other hand, the SCO expanded its influence by combating terrorism, drug trafficking, and separatism. Some scholars such as Stephen Aris have characterized the SCO as an organization concerned with addressing internal security problems. He claims that the SCO has no secret or strategic intent related to balancing US interests in the region. The basic problems of member countries include dealing with separatist movements such as Andijan, Chechnya, or the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region problem. Securing their regimes, considering internal problems and preventing separatist movements are vital to member countries. (1) Yeungmi Yun and Kicheol Pork also defined the SCO as a multilateral security organization which is based on the concept of multilateral security cooperation as a utilitarian foreign policy. (2) Due to capacity problems, different interests between member states, the enlargement problem and the different national strategies of Russia and China, these scholars evaluated the SCO only as a multilateral security organization. However, in this article, more than its official goals and multilateral security cooperation, the SCO is assessed to be a highly successful platform for Russia and China to engage in geopolitical balancing behavior. The SCO evolved from a limited regional organization to a larger Sino-Russian strategic partnership and cannot be evaluated only as a multilateral security organization, but should also be viewed as an important tool of a soft balancing strategy against the US. The organization has been able to function as a symbol of unity between Russia and China. In this framework, it is vital to explain the meaning and theoretical foundations of soft balancing.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, scholars speculated that other great powers would challange the US. But in the late 1990s, it seemed that major powers were not capable of pursuing balancing behavior against the US, and they could not respond with traditional hard balancing (3) mechanisms based on countervailing alliances and arms buildup. These second-tier major powers did not use military balancing, primarily because hard power balancing is risky and expensive. The US was an offshore power enjoying the advantages of geography, and there was a significant power disparity between the US and second-tier major powers. Meanwhile, the incentives for free-riding and buck-passing were strong. On the other hand, traditional balancing is related to territorial sovereignty. In the past, this strategy was used to protect security and state borders against the hegemonic state, but in the current situation there is no threat related to their existence. (4)

In this framework, "soft balancing is more convenient than hard balancing. The soft balancing strategy can be defined as nonmilitary alignments of at least two states that are designed to reduce or remove the military presence and external influence of an outside power from a specific region." (5) "Soft balancing is the conscious coordination of diplomatic action in order to obtain outcomes contrary to U.S. preferences. Outcomes that could not be gained if the balancers did not give each other some degree of mutual support." (6) These definitions make clear the importance of regionalism and mutual support. Countering the US is not possible at the systemic level.

Due to this reality, emerging powers developed new ways of balancing the great power of the US. The unilateral aggressive politics of the US after the 11 September 2001 attack in particular inspired more ambitious attitudes in second-class powers that could not previously balance US power militarily. President George W. Bush and his administration began to pursue a profoundly new US national security strategy. The invasion of Iraq symbolized this US unilateral security strategy and had important consequences for the international relations system. This increasingly unilateral policy behavior triggered 'soft balancing' measures; international institutions, economic statecraft, and diplomatic tools have been used to respond to the US. (7) The Iraq war and the US unilateral preventive war strategy manipulated other powers to build institutionalized alliances. According to Pope, the main purpose of balancing is limiting the superpower's future ambitions through coalitions against the unipolar leader. Moreover, soft balancing can establish a basis of cooperation for more forceful, hard-balancing measures in the future.

The SCO is a tool for managing great power relations, deepening neighborhood diplomacy and military cooperation, and enhancing mutually beneficial cooperation by disregarding trade blocks, using rising regionalism, and ensuring multilateral diplomacy. Indirectly, this institution reduces the effect of the US in the region and prevents other regional powers from making alliances with the US. Moreover, by promoting shared norms and common values, the cultural influence of the external power will be eliminated. (8) Strategic partnership requires a larger framework of cooperation rather than just bilateral relations. China and Russia hope through promoting multilateral cooperation and maintaining the principle of non-intervention among like-minded countries in the SCO to create a balance against US unilateralism and interventionism. (9)

In this context, Central Asia, through the SCO, provides an opportunity for China and Russia to exercise multilateral leadership. Their...