The reasons behind the AK Party's November 1st victory.

• Author: Uslu, Ibrahim
• Position: COMMENTARY

A Record-Breaking Election

In the weeks leading up to the November 2015 parliamentary election, few thought that the AK Party, could reverse their losses and reclaim the parliamentary majority which they had just lost in June, after thirteen consecutive years in power. On election day, even more seasoned experts were caught by surprise as the party received 49.5 percent of the vote to score a stunning electoral comeback. And this was not the only extraordinary aspect of the November 2015 elections either.

The November 2015 election, however, was already a historic event before the results started coming in. For the first time in the Republic's history, the Turkish people went to the polls for a repeat election due to the failure of major political parties to strike a deal by the constitutionally-mandated deadline. The contest, furthermore, went down in history as a record-breaking election season: by securing another four years in power, the AK Party became the first political party to single-handedly govern the country for four consecutive terms. The party, moreover, shattered the record for the highest number of votes received in an electoral contest with 22,959,394 supporters. While in June elections the AK Party received 50.4 percent of the vote from the Turkish citizens living outside the country, in November the turnout rate broke the 40-percent mark for the first time and the AK Party became the most popular party among Turks abroad with 56.38 percent of the vote. In total the party received 647,028 votes abroad to set a new record for the highest number of international votes received.

When the AK Party delivered a surprisingly strong performance on November 1, experts and commentators started looking for ways to account for the comeback. A closer analysis of electoral data, however, reveals that the June election, not the November contest, represented an exception.

Figure I indicates that the AK Party delivered similar performances in 2007, 2011 and November 2015 as the party's level of popular support remains relatively stable over an eight-year period. The June 2015 election, in contrast, marked a deviation from the trend line. Asking questions about the November 1 election, therefore, does not offer a complete picture about voter behavior and the performances of individual political parties. Instead, we must first question why the AK Party experienced an eight-point drop on June 7.

Why did the AK Party Suffer on June 7?

When the AK Party's popular support dipped in June 2015, experts and close followers of Turkish politics came up with a number of explanations. A popular argument, especially among AK Party members, was that the disappointing results were closely related to the choice of candidates. Many observers argued that the party picked the wrong contenders in predominantly-Kurdish districts across eastern and southeastern Turkey. The list of the candidates is the main factor of the declining vote rate in the national level as well.

Others blamed the hollow victory on unimpressive campaign pledges. At a time when opposition leaders made some wild and irresponsible economic promises to voters, the incumbents focused on...