The Proliferation of Combat Drones in Civil and Interstate Conflicts: The Case of Turkiye and Azerbaijan.

• Author: Khalilzada, Javadbay

Introduction

Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or with more common usage, combat drones (1) are now the primary advanced technology used by states and increasingly non-state actors in combat zones. For example, in 2000, 17 countries' arsenals had drones, the number surpassed 100 countries in 2019, and the number of countries that actively use military drones increased by 58 percent in the past decade. (2) Drones are actively used in battle zones in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. While the proliferation of drones increases the states' capacity to counter terrorist attacks and prevent them, it also threatens regional and global stability and security. Indeed, the second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno Karabakh region that occurred between September and November of 2020 showed how drones can change the military balance and increase the military capacity of states that possess this technology.

There is a growing body of literature (3) that examines the use of drones in combat zones. Umar Farooq differentiates the use of drones by the U.S. and its allies as the first drone age (4) and the proliferation of drones and their use by the non-U.S. allies as the second drone age, respectively. In the first drone age, the U.S. and its allies used drones for surveillance intelligence and eliminated the designated terrorist targets and leaders with precise attacks. In the second drone age, drones used by state in interstate conflicts, to assert influence and by non-state actors to damage state infrastructures. While the division can be seen as temporary, as new states purchase drones and join 'drone-owning' clubs, the definition fits to classify and differentiate first and second-tier states. Turkiye is one of these states that uses its domestic drones in power projection and increases its influence in the region. Following Farooq's definition, this study separates Turkiye and Azerbaijan from the U.S. and Israel as the second-age drone consumers for their objectives; the study also simultaneously uses Krause's three-tier classification of states and their military technology production and trade capacity at the international level. (5)

Krause divides states into three tiers according to their production and consumption power capacity in the global arms market. According to Krause:

First-tier states innovate at the technological frontier and do not rely on imports to maintain their production capacity; second-tier suppliers produce weapons at the technological frontier and adapt them to specific market needs, devoting their production system largely to exports; third-tier suppliers copy and reproduce existing technologies (via transfer of design), but do not capture the underlying process of innovation or adaptation, strong customers obtain (via material transfers) and use modern weapons, and weak customers either obtain modern weapons and cannot use them, or do not even obtain them. (6) Second-tier producer and supplier countries like Turkiye, which try to keep pace with the first-tier states, aim to project their power and influence in global arms production and export. Turkiye's use of its domestically produced drones, with some technological parts of these drones imported from the UK, Canada, and the U.S., increased its production, export, and warfare strategy, particularly in Syria and Libya. Azerbaijan, as a third-tier country, is a consumer in the global arms market. Although Azerbaijan's (7) share in the global market was around one percent in the last decade, Azerbaijan's military spending was around $24 billion between 2009 and 2018. (8) That is a significant amount for a small state. Azerbaijan's adoption of imported advanced military technologies and their use during the war shows the country's third-tier solid profile.

This study explores the use of drones by Turkiye, the second-tier state that tries to keep peace with first-tier countries in global drone competitions. Third-tier Azerbaijan exports drones from Turkiye and Israel and has actively used this technology in the war against Armenia to assert its control over Nagorno-Karabakh. There is a gap in the literature on how a second-tier country like Turkiye actively uses its domestically made drones in its power projection in the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Eastern Europe. Azerbaijan is a third-tier country that extensively relied upon Turkish and Israeli-made drones during the war. It is one of the few small states that actively uses imported drones in interstate conflicts to assert its power and de-occupy the territories that the country lost in the war in the early 1990s. Turkiye and Azerbaijan are strategic allies and partners. In his recent interview Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, stated that Azerbaijan is going to reform its army in line with the Turkish model. (9) Thus, examining these two countries together and their assertive use of drones would contribute to understanding the role of drones and their role in the second drone age.

First, the study will explore the first-tier countries and the first drone age, and how drones are utilized by the U.S. and its allies. The section will be followed by an analysis of how drones have proliferated across countries and an account of the competition for owning drones. This section will be followed by examining Turkiye as the second-tier state and emerging drone power and its use of domestic-made drones in conflicts. The Azerbaijani case will be discussed as a third-tier small state dependent on exported drones but an ambitious practitioner of these drones to assert its assertiveness in the region and liberation of the territories. I will evaluate the role of drones' precisions and effectiveness and how drones transform warfare in the conclusion.

The study follows a qualitative exploratory method to examine cases. The primary data consist of official documents and interviews with the state representatives that are available in open sources, statements of the officials and state institutions. Scholarly and investigative studies, periodicals, and journalistic research reports are also used as secondary data.

Adoption of Drones in Warfare: Historical Overview and the First Drone Age

Michael Kreuzer states that the emergence of drones followed the invention of microprocessors and the result of the so-called 'information revolution,' which paved the way for using these advanced technologies as part of military strategies. (10) Historically, drones was used for intelligence gathering, guided missiles, and explosives. The first recorded unmanned aircraft/air balloon was used by Austrians to suppress a revolt in Venice in 1849 when explosives were dropped into the city via flying balloons. (11) During the First World War, the U.S. used pilotless aircraft as practice targets or missiles. (12) The U.S. used Model 147 jet-powered drones during the Vietnam War for target acquisition and intelligence gathering. Another first-tier state Israel used drones for actual combat purposes in the Yom Kippur War (also known as the Ramadan War) in 1973. (13) In subsequent years, Israel pioneered the development of drones for combat purposes. Israel actively used drones in the Lebanon Wars in 1982 and 2006 for surveillance, target acquisition, and intelligence gathering. (14)

Israel not only makes drones for domestic use but is also one of the largest exporters of drones. (15) According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database, the country accounted for 41 percent of all drone exports between 2001 and 2011, totaling a sum of $4.6 bn. For instance, India, Azerbaijan, and Singapore are among the top buyers of Israeli drones. Thus, Israel is among the first tier of drone powers, both producer and innovator, and supplier of these high-tech military technologies. Among these drones, the Hermes 450 and Heron TP (Eitan) is the most advanced and can carry missiles and reach speeds up to 175 km and 250 km, respectively. Manufactured by Elbit Systems, Hermes 450's wingspans are 10.5 m, and its operational range is 200 km with 20 hours of endurance. Heron TP (Eitan) is manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industry with 16.6 m wingspans, 350 km range, and 35 hours of operational endurance. (16)

However, the U.S. possesses the most advanced drones and is the most active user of drones in combat zones as a first-tier drone state. Since the mid-twentieth century, the United States has used drones for long-range reconnaissance missions, most notably during the Vietnam War. (17) The U.S. used drones in the Gulf War, and the Predator drone was deployed for the first time during the Bosnian War and in the Kosovo War in 1999 for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. (18) Following 9/11, the U.S. War on Terror intensified the use of drones in military tasks, especially for target strikes. The U.S. military and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operated drones to get intelligence, follow insurgents and terrorist organizations, and hunt those defined as terrorists. During the presidency of Obama, 400 drone strikes were launched, and over 3,300 ISIS, Taliban, and other terrorist operatives were killed. (19) The assassination of Gasem Soleimani near Baghdad in 2020, head of Iran's elite Quds Force and spearhead of Iran's military operations in the Middle East, and al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri with drone strikes are recent examples. While Gasem Soleimani was not a designated terrorist, President Trump said that he was "directly and indirectly responsible for the deaths of millions of people." (20) Along with "hunting" terrorists, drones also provided air support to ground forces. Drones such as the MQ-1 Predator, RQ-9 Reaper, and RQ-4 Global Hawk played critical roles and completed risky missions in the war on terrorism waged by the United States and its allies. Drones were extremely important...