The Evolutionary Feature of Turkey's Soft Power in the Middle East, 2011-2020.

• Author: Omidi, Ali
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction

Turkey has set a number of historic targets for the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the modern Turkish Republic, which will be celebrated in 2023; these include being among the top 15 economies of the world, raising gross domestic product (GDP) to $1,080 billion, rising per capita income to $12,484, increasing exports to $226.6 billion, reducing the unemployment rate to 9.9 percent and holding inflation to consistently low, single-digit figures. (1) Politically, Ankara envisages achieving the highest levels of intellectual and value-oriented democracy, a competitive and knowledge-oriented economy, a progressive and innovative foreign policy, and cultural rejuvenation in line with Turkey's ancient history, fulfilling its role as a connection point between the East and West and further integrating with the international community. (2) These goals are ambitious, but if realized, they would make Turkey the first economic power after Indonesia among the predominantly Muslim-majority countries. Turkey is well aware that in order to realize its 100th anniversary goals, it should first and foremost endeavor to build up its soft power; since countries need both soft and hard power to exert political influence and engage successfully in economic markets.

The present commentary investigates the evolution of Turkey's soft power during the reign of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and argues that although Turkey's soft power has been subject to fluctuation in 2002-2020 period, it has generally been maintained in terms of both audience and pace. Therefore, this article challenges the notion of a decline in Turkey's soft power, which has been touted in some academic papers. (3) This text is a commentary; as such, it reflects the author's analysis of the targeted people's perceptions about Turkey's soft power, with reference to quantifiable measurements.

Soft power refers to a country's ability to influence others with the aim of achieving desired goals through appeal and attraction rather than compulsion and coercion. If we translate 'power' as the ability to produce desired outcomes by influencing others' behavior, soft power is the ability to get 'others to want the outcomes that you want.' (4) The major sources of a country's soft power include culture, history, attractions, and progressive political values, successful foreign and domestic policies, and effective public diplomacy. The sources of hard power can generate soft power, and vice versa as well. In other words, the material and tangible indices of hard power, including a potent armed force and strong economic capability, can be sources of soft power by producing attraction for others, depending on the circumstances and the mode of application. (5)

As a response to the EU's reluctance to take Turkey in as a full member, President Erdogan once stated that if the EU did not open the way, Turkey would convert the Copenhagen criteria to Ankara criteria and would continue its reforms: "Turkey's aim is full membership in the EU. We are not ready to accept anything else." (6) Ankara's novel policy provided Turkey with a remarkable position in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The public of many Muslim-majority countries consider Turkey a successful example among Muslim countries, due to its blending of liberalism, secularism, economic and political development, and the preservation of local cultural values. Indeed, while examining Turkey's soft power, one should not confuse the country's popularity among the publics of Muslim countries with its unpopularity among some of their governments. Moreover, Turkey's less popularity among western governments and their people should also be taken separately.

As mentioned above, Turkish evolutionary soft power can be measured according to its main indicators such as political-economic accomplishments, cultural features, educational progress, media outreach, religious tolerance, etc.

Ingredients of Turkey's Soft Power

In 2002, a new understanding of foreign policy emerged in the AK Party, and it adopted a new approach aligned with the writings and thoughts of Ahmet Davutoglu. The main principle behind the new approach, 'zero problems with neighbors,' included creating a developed country at the heart of the Middle East and the strategic depth approach. It was on this basis that Turkey altered its position on issues relating to Armenia, Syria, Iraq's Kurds, and Northern Cyprus. The AK Party's manifesto emphasized the necessity of a multilateral foreign policy, taking into account the nation's historical past, geographical and cultural depth, and strategic position. The main goal of the AK Party's foreign policy at this time was to extract Turkey from its passive and defensive stance and convert it into a key player with a local, regional, and even global perspective. (7)

Economic development is pivotal to a state's soft power image. While many economies failed to recuperate from the global financial recession of 2008, Turkey's economy recorded a growth of 8.5 percent and 11.2 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Between 2011 and 2018, Turkey's economic growth did not drop below 3.3 percent. Even in 2013 and 2017, it experienced a growth of 8.5 percent and 7.5 percent consecutively. (8) It was only in 2019 and 2020 that Turkey's economic growth subsided, like that of the rest of the world, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it never scaled down to the zero or negative point. All in all, Turkey's rating in the Soft Power 30 Index rose from 42.55 in 2015 to 49.70 in 2019. (9) This signals that although Turkey's soft power underwent occasional ups and downs after 2012, it nonetheless developed to a remarkable degree.

Throughout these same years, 3,702 foreign firms were active in Turkey, engaged in producing consumer goods and supplying services to the Turkish populace. (10) Rapid growth, a single-digit inflation rate by 2017, political stability, and deeper integration within the international economy underpinned Turkey's standing as Europe's 7th largest economy with an export value of more than $150 billion and made the Turkish model attractive for the Middle East in terms of economic perspectives. Since the economic growth of the EU contracted following the 2008 global financial recession, Turkey's contrasting economic success catalyzed its increased economic relationship with the Arab world and the Middle East, and Turkey signed several economic Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with regional and other countries, including agreements on free trade zones, in order to gain a greater economic foothold in the Middle East. (11)

Although Turkey's share of the production of industrial goods in 2018 accounted for merely 1 percent of global output and occupied the world's 16th place, the quality of Turkish goods, particularly clothing brands, is cherished internationally. Turkey is the 6th major manufacturer of cotton products globally. The quality of Turkish clothes is widely admired, to the extent that Turkey is the third major exporter of clothes to Europe, (12) and Turkish product and service brands compete with major European manufacturers. (13) Aside from the revenues this production earns for Turkey, the country's reputation for quality has contributed to the expansion of its soft power both globally and in the Middle East. It is worth noting that MENA was the second export target of Turkey textiles and clothing in 2019 with more than $5 billion revenues. (14)

Turkey has undertaken different strategies in its nation branding. Nation branding is defined as "the application of corporate marketing concepts and techniques to countries in the interest of enhancing their reputation in international relations." (15) According to the Nation Brands 2021 Ranking 2021, Turkey ranked 32nd in...