The European Crisis and Turkey's Unpredictable Role in the Balkans.

• Author: Roubanis, Ilya
• Position: COMMENTARY - Report

Europe remains a normative superpower, (1) setting standards and shaping political norms well beyond its member states. Even amid an undeniable crisis of the project of European integration, both within member states and in the regions around the EU, the functionalist premise still appears valid. Integration in one policy area creates a spillover effect causing member states and associated partners to coordinate policy in another, paving the way for an ever-closer union. Association Agreements, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCF-TAs), and a Customs Union area create a space of free trade around Europe that has a profound effect in

Europe, well beyond the EU. However, as the Brexit process suggests, functional interdependence does not determine political cohesion, especially in an increasingly multipolar world order. While Turkey is in many respects a European economy, the fact that Ankara's prospects for EU membership are dimming--along with those of the Western Balkan states- changes the frame of political engagement, providing scope for colliding or even zero-sum encounters.

For more than a decade, there has been a Turkish 'post-Ottoman' vision of the Balkans that was not in conflict with Europeanization per se. Turkey's ambition in the region to stand out as a protector of Muslim minorities and renew its political and economic bonds with the region could be enveloped into a greater narrative of regional integration. However, when signaled out as a 'European other,' Turkey is often driven to make the Balkans the testing ground of a more zero-sum framing of diplomatic relations with Brussels. This article makes the constructivist argument that Turkey's perception of 'national interests' in the Balkans makes part of a 'mutually constitutive' dynamic between Europe and Turkey. As far as Turkey is not part of the community-building process, it may be seen as part of an alternative cluster of bilateral relationships that undermines the narrative of functional interdependence.

What Europeanization?

One should not confuse functional linkage with structurally enduring relations. A policy-by-policy process of integration does not tell the whole story of European integration.

Enlargement does not merely 'assimilate' states in a rule-based political order but also causes the EU to reflect on its role, its mission, and its institutional apparatus. With the British, Irish, and Danish accessions, the EU moved to create a European Regional Fund and to reform the common agricultural policy. The arrival of Greece in 1981 and of Spain and Portugal in 1986 led to initiatives for a substantial cohesion policy, as a precondition of realizing the Single Market and guaranteeing democracy. But faced with the biggest wave of enlargement in 2004--the so-called big bang expansion--Europeanization became a reform project.

Fifteen years following the big bang enlargement, the EU has successfully addressed the fear that consensus-driven bureaucratic processes might become dysfunctional. As newcomers came into the EU, political stakeholders were quickly assimilated. Parties found their place in the European Parliament, in the Council of Ministers member-states joined time-tested alliances, and the Commissioners empowered by adequate technocratic support rose to the challenge. Where concerns persist and have in fact intensified, is the ability of EU institutions to effectively monitor the process of member-state-building on a micro-governance level, where concerns are raised about corruption, rule of law structures, tax evasion, and the like. (2)

Given that failure, the promise of EU membership has lost much of its credibility both for Turkey and other Balkans states. Recently, the chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Ivan Krastev, made a useful distinction between 'pessimists' and 'optimists' on the subject of EU membership: "optimists believe Turkey will join during the Albanian EU presidency, while pessimists believe Albania will join during the Turkish EU presidency." (3) In the current context, to suggest that the EU suffers from "enlargement fatigue" is an understatement. In the EU-Western Balkans Summit of May 2018, in Sofia, Chancellor Angela Merkel offered assurances that Balkan countries retain their entitlement to EU membership, as promised in the Thessaloniki Council of June 2013. However, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, was careful not to overstate the "unrealistic" perspective of fast track membership. (4) In June 2018, France and the Netherlands blocked the opening of EU accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania, calling for more reforms that would bolster the rule of law and transparency. (5)

The jury is still out on whether it is Turkey and the Balkans that are failing to reform, or the EU that lacks the political resolve to drive the transitional process. What is clear from cases such as the Dutch referendum against Ukraine's Association Agree-ment (6) and the UK's 2016 Leave campaign is that enlargement has become a heated debate often framed by anti-immigration rhetoric. The EU's consensus-driven policy framework undermines the credibility of the enlargement process, a weakness that was already identified since the signature and ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

As the European sovereign debt crisis was unfolding in 2009, President Sarkozy underlined the need for the union to act as a single international actor, by extending the principle of unanimity in the Council to qualified majority voting, increasing the scope for co-decision between the European Council and the European Parliament, reducing the number of Commissioners, creating the post of the President of the European Council and creating a single and empowered office of an EU foreign minister. The underlying theme was that consensus was a fragile foundation for an ever-growing union and there was increasing demand for majority-driven decision making. He referred explicitly to enlargement: "No Lisbon Treaty, no enlargement... I would find it very strange for a Europe of 27 that has trouble agreeing on workable institutions to agree on adding a 28th, a 29th, a 30th, a 31st, which would definitely make things worse." (7)

After a decade of economic crisis across the EU, the term 'enlargement fatigue' often goes hand-in-hand with the admission that Europe has lost confidence in the combined dynamic of an ever-encompassing and ever-closer union. In the Sofia Summit of 2018, EU leaders narrowed the discussion to a transactional agenda. There was a focus on the need to ensure that ISIS fighters returning from Syria do not go on to pursue terrorist activity in Europe. There was great interest in ensuring that Turkey and Balkan states continue to disrupt the flow of migration into Western Europe. There were extensive discussions on how Balkan states would be assisted for their cooperation. However, there was little appetite to discuss enlargement.

"I don't want a Balkans that turns toward Turkey or Russia; but I don't want a Europe that is functioning with difficulty as 28 and tomorrow as 27, would decide that we can continue to gallop off, to be tomorrow 30 or 32, with the same rules," French President Emmanuel Macron told the European Parliament in April 2018. "I do not think 2025 is a realistic date for the EU enlargement; more important is the progress that has been achieved by the candidates," said Chancellor Angela Merkel on May 17, in Sofia. (8) In parallel, Washington's commitment to the Euro-Atlantic "community" is waning.

Addressing the World Economic Forum in January 2019, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made clear that pre-existing alliances and institutions must serve national interests. "Nations matter," Pompeo professed, making clear that the United States stands critically against globalization. (9) That statement was consistent with a long-standing skepticism expressed by Washington both vis-a-vis the United Nations and NATO. At times, this criticism against international organizations is focused on issues, such as member state defense expenditure, in which Turkey stands out as one of the five to eight countries that consistently meet the two percent of GDP threshold set by allies. But, this does not...