The belt and road initiative and Middle Eastern politics: Challenges ahead.

• Author: Kucukcan, Talip
• Position: COMMENTARY - Essay

ABSTRACT Involving sixty countries, the Belt and Road Initiative sparked a global debate because of its potential economic and political implications. Sceptics argue this project cannot achieve its objectives as it requires close cooperation amongst many countries whose national interests are on a collision course. The optimists contend the initiative provides a win-win scenario for participating countries. This paper argues that success of the project in the Middle East depends on overcoming several challenges including: eliminating security threats and terrorist organizations; finding sustainable solutions to political tensions and armed conflicts; and consolidating good governance.

Introduction

Announced by the Republic of China in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative generated considerable interest as the project is thought to have far reaching economic, political and cultural consequences. The Silk Road is an ancient trade route crossing three continents that reminds us globalization is not a totally new, modern phenomenon and that trade has connected peoples, regions and countries for hundreds of years. In fact, the activities and transactions in and around the Silk Road routes of past centuries represent an earlier version of globalization. Stretching from China and India all the way through Persia, Mesopotamia, the Middle East and Anatolia to Europe, the world enjoyed considerable economic and cultural exchanges for centuries.

The imperial wars for regional and global hegemony and emergence of nation states slowed down the forces of globalization as national borders became sine qua non for security especially in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. However, with the rise of communication technologies, popular culture, free trade and population movements, the process of globalization marked the second half of the previous century. Today we are witnessing a stronger wave of globalization on a wider and larger scale because of ever increasing trade volume, foreign investments, rising number of people traveling all around the globe--all enabled by much faster communication facilitated by new technologies and the media. There is no doubt that if the Belt and Road Initiative achieves its objectives, globalization will take a new shape and content bringing nations and cultures closer based on common interests.

As the events and changes in international relations unfold with the rise of populist leaders, two trends seem to compete with each other--and are reminiscent of the Cold War psyche. One trend is the inclusiveness and closer connectivity among regions and countries as barriers are lifted, creating economic interdependency based on cooperation on a broad range of issues rather than isolation and confrontation. The other trend recently gaining ground, especially in the West, is anti-globalization expressed in policies through economic protectionism, creating barriers against free trade and foreign investment, closing borders to immigration and new comers. Ironically, proponents and leaders of yesterday's globalization, especially in the Western world, seem to have had a U-turn today by celebrating populism that leads to isolationism. The Belt and Road Initiative calls for us to revisit these trends with potentially deep effects on global trade, commerce, intercultural, civilizational and technological exchanges as well as global security architecture and geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts. However, a number of serious challenges remain especially in regions marked by long running political instability and conflicts.

In this paper, I will focus on today's Middle East and try to highlight how the Belt and Road Initiative might impact the region and contribute to its economic development, political stabilization and common security arrangement. As it now stands, however, there are major challenges and potential obstacles to be resolved. Without a realistic assessment of these challenges and obstacles and the generation of viable solutions acceptable to the regional powers, the Belt and Road Initiative will likely take much longer to materialize. If the initiative is designed to be a common project of Middle Eastern countries, then we have no choice but to engage in a rational debate on political tensions, military conflicts, security threats and problems of governance in the region.

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The Potential of the Middle East

Now, let us look at the potential of the Middle East for the Belt and Road Initiative as a cradle of many civilizations and birthplace of global religions such as Judaism, Christianity and Islam, all of which can contribute to the modern revival of the Silk Road. Today, this region hosts...