The 2021-2022 "De-Escalation Moment" in the Middle East: A Net Assessment.

• Author: Bakir, Ali
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction

For a long time, the Middle East has been one of the most volatile regions in the world. Instability, conflicts, rivalry, and struggles among its key regional heavyweights have been the norm to the extent that one would not remember the last time when all these players agreed on something. However, in a surprisingly contradicting manner, the Middle East is currently witnessing a rare moment of regional de-escalation and an unprecedented pace of reconciliation among the regional powers. Several key players have been reaching out to each other to normalize relations and open a new page. Business, security, and diplomacy have been at the core of the talks between these countries' top leaders and key decision-makers.

The process started with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reaching out to Iran at the end of 2020 and Saudi Arabia reaching out to Qatar at the beginning of 2021. Afterward, intensive diplomatic engagements kicked off between Egypt and Qatar, Turkiye and Egypt, UAE and Turkiye, Turkiye and Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. In most cases, the engagement between the intelligence communities of the adversaries ensured an apolitical and professional environment for the politicians to communicate in order to work out their differences. Likewise, business, trade, and investments provided strong and solid incentives for the involved parties to seek common ground and achieve a win-win situation.

Comprehensive Review

In January 2021, Egypt resumed its diplomatic relations with Qatar after years of tensions.(1) The top diplomats of the two countries exchanged visits. They established a follow-up committee to settle issues of bilateral concern and a high joint committee to boost cooperation between the two capitals.(2) Egypt's President Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi met Qatar's Emir twice, in Baghdad in August 2021(3) and Beijing in November 2021.(4) As ties improved, Doha pledged in March 2022 to invest $5 billion in the Egyptian economy in the coming few years, which will add to the billions of dollars it has already invested.(5)

As for Turkiye and Egypt, their rapprochement started officially in May 2021. Delegations from the two countries led by deputy foreign ministers conducted two rounds of exploratory talks in 2021, one in Cairo in May 2021 and the other in Ankara in September 2021.(6) They addressed bilateral issues and a number of regional issues, particularly the situation in Libya, Syria, and Iraq and the need to achieve peace and security in the Eastern Mediterranean region.(7) The normalization has been going forward slowly but steadily. In April 2022, Turkiye's Foreign Minister did not rule out the reciprocal appointment of ambassadors and a meeting at the foreign ministerial level.(8) Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance, Nureddin Nebati visited Egypt in June 2022, the first by a Turkish minister to Cairo in nine years.

In 2021, the two regional rivalries, Saudi Arabia and Iran, sat down together for the first time in years following an Iraqi effort to facilitate talks between them in Baghdad. Riyadh cut off diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 after the storming of its embassy in Tehran. The first round of the exploratory talks between them kicked off in September 2021.(9) Despite the short-lived setback in March 2022 when Iran announced the suspension of talks,(10) officials of the two countries conducted a fifth round of talks in April 2022.(11) Security issues, Yemen, and the reopening of their embassies were among the topics discussed. While Tehran has stressed the importance of resuming diplomatic relations, Riyadh asserted that it wants to see more practical actions from Tehran first.(12)

The rapprochement between the UAE and Turkiye was surprisingly quick, given the tense state of relations in the last decade or so. Approaching each other with a clear and direct agenda, mostly revolving around the mutual benefits of boosting trade, investment, and business in a win-win situation, was determinant. In November 2021, Abu Dhabi's crown prince at the time and the--de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)--Mohammad bin Zayed (MBZ), paid a visit to Turkiye, (13) the first of its kind in nine years. His visit was preceded by a visit of the UAE's national security advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed to Ankara in August 2021.(14) Turkiye's President Erdogan reciprocated by visiting Abu Dhabi in February 2022. A lavish reception was arranged for him, with a cavalry procession, a 21-gun salute, and an aerial show. These visits resulted in a number of agreements, MoUs, and deals that inaugurated the opening of a new page between the two capitals.(15)

When it comes to Turkiye and Israel, Israel's President Isaac Herzog paid a landmark visit to Ankara in March 2022, the first of its kind for an Israeli President in 15 years. Several developments prepared the ground for this visit, including a rare phone call between the two Presidents in July 2021, a secret visit of Israel's Foreign Ministry Director-General, Alon Ushpiz, to Ankara in January 2022, and a delegation of senior Turkish officials flying to Tel Aviv in February 2022.(16) The (un)involvement of the Israeli government means that re-building bilateral relations must be done in a measured and cautious way. However, during the last year, intelligence cooperation took the upper hand between the two sides. Moreover, the two parties have been mulling over the possibility of carrying Israel's gas to Europe via Turkiye, which--if realized--will be a game-changer in the Eastern Mediterranean. To build on the visit of the Israeli President and...