Perceptions of Turkey in the US Congress: A Twitter Data Analysis/ABD Kongresi'nde Turkiye Algisi: Twitter Veri Analizi.

• Author: Mehmetcik, Hakan

Introduction

The importance of individuals, social movements, and international networks has grown dramatically, as a result of the information revolution and the rise of social media. Similarly, the use of social media has expanded well beyond traditional media platforms, even for policymakers. Officials from various nations and domains are now using social media sites and services to engage with the public, and to express their perspectives on a wide range of subjects and topics. State and non-state actors are utilizing social media to promote their policy objectives to garner support, participate in diplomacy, and affect foreign policy outcomes. In this sense, a social media analysis has enormous potential for the determination and implementation of foreign policy, because it provides a significant amount of information about the perspectives, beliefs, and communication styles of users. (1) Thus, social media data has become a source of data for foreign policy research. (2)

The number of US Members of Congress (USMCs) who utilize social media has grown in recent years, as they employ social media technology to support their overall office communication strategies, and to distribute information. (3) According to Pew Research, the congressional social media landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. These shifts have been most noticeable on Twitter. In comparison to 2016, the average member of Congress now tweets nearly twice as frequently (81% more), has nearly three times as many followers, and receives nearly six times as many retweets on their average post. (4) A total of 532 of the 535 members of Congress had a campaign or personal Twitter account as of August 2021. Between 2009 and 2021, 154 of 163 Senators and 770 of 830 Representatives had a Twitter account.

Turkish American relations cover frequently researched topics from diverse perspectives, using a variety of techniques and approaches. Hence, it is impossible to present here a concise list of such a vast literature, but to the best of the authors' knowledge, no single study has yet examined congressional presence on Twitter in connection with Turkish American ties. During the literature review, we found only one study that had used Twitter data, which has only a few accounts from key foreign policy decision-makers from the two countries, but none from the US Congress itself. (5) Furthermore, the methods employed in that study are limited to a few typical Twitter indicators, which are incomparable to those used in this study in terms of scope and context. By studying a data set of 547 Twitter accounts belonging to USMCs and their Twitter messages between 2009 and 2021 this paper seeks to contribute to the growing literature on social media analysis in International Relations (IR). It should be noted that when it comes to Turkey and Turkish Foreign Policy (TFP), academic research in this field is still negligible, yet there have been important early attempts. (6) Many more comprehensive and systemic pieces of research employing social media data should be conducted in the IR discipline, and this study aims to contribute to this growing literature.

The first section discusses social media and IR. The second section deals with the role of Congress in US foreign policymaking and Turkish American relations, briefly. The third section introduces the data collection and the data itself along with the several methods and techniques used in this article. The following results and discussion section provides the analysis drawn from the data. The last section overviews the findings and offers some ideas based on these findings with respect to the state of Turkish American relations.

Social Media and International Relations

The internet and other information technologies are no longer a peripheral component in the conduct of all types of daily activity. Among these new technologies and communication channels, smartphone technology and the rise of social media, in general, have opened up a whole new range of study options in the social behavioral sciences. (7) Similarly, the role of social media in IR is now a burgeoning field of research. (8)

Social media platforms are now significantly more effective and popular than traditional media resources, which previously dominated the media-public opinion-foreign-policy nexus. (9) Therefore, an important aspect of social media is that they offer public spheres where global public opinion is shaped. According to Habermas, public spaces are a constellation of communication areas in society that allow exchanges of information and ideas, facilitating discussion and the formation of public opinion. (10) In modern computer-oriented societies, the public sphere has increasingly become virtual, via numerous internet forums and social media services. (11) Social media and other online platforms provide an extra-societal, transnational public sphere, where global public opinion is formed and circulated. This turns social media into a fertile environment for investigating public opinion.

Digital diplomacy is a new type of public diplomacy that uses advanced information and communication technologies and social media tools to carry out various public diplomacy goals, such as advocacy, lobbying, nation branding, cultural diplomacy, and so on. Among the social media channels, Twitter is an especially interesting case for foreign policy and diplomacy practice and research. In essence, Twitter may be regarded as a micro-blogging service which allows users to communicate by sending brief messages that roughly correspond to their ideas and opinions on a certain subject. With this design, it has evolved into a medium for first-hand information and opinions on a variety of topics. Leaders and government agencies, especially embassies, use Twitter to chronicle their most important daily actions, communicate with international and domestic audiences, respond to queries and comments, and share perspectives with colleagues and counterparts in open forums. (12)

Congress and US Foreign Policy Making

Concerning US foreign policy, Congress is regarded as the legislative branch. (13) However, several historical examples show that congressional engagement on foreign policy can prove to be contentious and difficult across a wide variety of issues for any US administration. (14) Several pieces of research have found it difficult to determine the factors in USMC's foreign policy decision-making. Many studies find that ideology, party affiliation, and, in certain cases, individual members' leadership are important determinants. (15) Indeed, any elected official must strike a compromise between the preferences of the general population, particular constituencies within the electorate, pressure from party leaders in Congress, and their own ideology. (16) When it comes to foreign policy issues, however, pressure from party leaders and ideology are the two most important factors affecting USMCs' stand on any particular issues. (17) Nevertheless, a crucial point when it comes to the role of Congress and foreign policymaking is that without Congress's approval and backing, no US president can maintain long-term policies. Congress's involvement is also important in attracting the public's attention to and legitimizing foreign policy. Therefore, beyond who controls the White House, the role of Congress complicates any prediction of the direction of US foreign policy. In other words, congressional views on a country might hinder the formation of a coherent foreign policy for that country.

US-Turkish Relations: A Brief Background

The USA and Turkey have a long-shared history based on common political, security, and economic interests. This long-enduring relationship, however, has deteriorated from a strategic alliance or strategic partnership into a full-fledged crisis of strategic insecurity and misalignment in the last decade. (18)

Turkey's position and commitment to NATO and the USA as a strategic ally have been routinely questioned by high-level officials in Washington, (19) who see Ankara as a disruptive force, jeopardizing US foreign policy objectives in the wider Middle East. (20) Turkey's cozy relations with Russia and China; (21) Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 systems against all warnings from Washington; (22) Turkey's unilateral actions in Syria, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean; (23) and Turkey's growing differences with Gulf countries and Israel are among the concerns that US officials have vehemently debated in recent years.

Similarly, the Turkish authorities have long been skeptical and concerned about US policies and postures in the region. Two events have played a significant role in the growing Turkish resentment against the US. The first is the failed coup attempt of 2016, and the US refusal to respond to Turkey's request for the extradition of Fethullah Gulen, a former imam accused of plotting it. Turkey was shaken not only by the coup event itself but also by the silence of its traditional friends in its aftermath. Since then, Turkey's suspicion toward the US has been driven by anti-Americanism (24) and conspiracy theories. (25) However, direct US aid to the PKK, a group classified as a terrorist organization by the US and Turkey, and the development of a new PKK statelet in Northern Syria are likely to be the most significant obstacles in this respect. (26)

Nonetheless, Turkey, a mid-sized regional power, continues to capture US policymakers' attention. (27) Perceptions in the US of Turkey as a 'junior partner', as opposed to Turkey's self-identification as 'an independent and assertive regional power', is a critical dynamic that plays out in determining the course of US-Turkey relations. In such an environment, the US-Turkish relationship has reached a point of uncertainty or crisis over the last few years. Following the withdrawal of the Patriot Missile Defense System in 2015, the attempted coup in...