A Panoramic View of the UK Relations with the EU and Turkey Post-Brexit.

• Author: Atik, Aslihan Yordem
• Position: COMMENTARY

Introduction

When the historical development of the European integration process is analyzed, it may be observed that the United Kingdom (UK) has long maintained a skeptical and anxious political attitude and behavior toward the issue of transnationalism. While Germany was in 'year zero' in 1945 following the Second World War (WWII), France and the three Benelux countries, aiming for economic modernization to overcome their distrust of Germany, focused on attempts to fix the continent's ill-fortune. The UK preferred to remain indifferent to the integration proposals with which it was presented, as it prioritized its relations with the United States and the Commonwealth of Nations, and considered itself a global power. One of the reasons for this isolationism is that the UK, which was at the peak of its power and prestige following WWII, is well above European standards in economic and military terms. In other words, according to England, the sharing of sovereignty is not for the victorious British, but it is a policy behavior according to the lost Continents. (1) European integration, which many British politicians considered unlikely to succeed, was only of symbolic significance outside of free trade issues. As a matter of fact, such a federation requiring the sacrifice of independence was considered a project in which the British could never be involved. (2)

The UK, which sometimes characterizes its attitude and behavior toward advanced integration efforts in Europe as indifferent and sometimes as devotion, established the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), despite the fact that this organization is less economically advantageous compared to the European Communities (EC); only one year after its establishment, it became the first EFTA country to apply for EC membership.

Considering the periods after it became an EU member, the United Kingdom -which was once the empire on which the sun never set-mostly adopted an obstructive and contrarian attitude in the processes toward expanding the Community policies and establishing the Community as a supranational structure by increasing the powers of decision-making bodies. For example, Britain, the architect of the famous budget wars that left their mark on the history of the EC, did not hesitate to present a member profile that always had more difficulty in acting jointly in many areas, especially monetary union, harmony, and social policies, foreign policy, and security.

It is pertinent that the UK's decision to leave the European Union as of June 21, 2016, is positioned in the context of the history mentioned above. One striking point here is that the decision to leave the EU was not prevented in the referendum, although different opinions were shared with the public within the framework of transparency and Britain once again demonstrated its contrarian style, similar to the past. As a matter of fact, the UK maintained its reputation for being the first country to decide to leave the European Union by a vote of only 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent.

Since the referendum in June 2016, Brexit has undoubtedly occupied the EU agenda more than anything else. The Brexit process, which officially began on March 29, 2017, with the implementation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), was postponed twice in approximately 34 months, resulting in three government changes and the resignation of two prime ministers and many bureaucrats. (3) Finally, as of January 31, 2020, the UK became the first country to officially leave the European Union. The process did not end with this departure, however, and it was decided to continue negotiations until the end of 2020, in order to reach a comprehensive agreement that would regulate future relations between the parties. In order to minimize the potential risk factors for the parties during the 11-month transition period, the UK remained in the EU Single Market and Customs Union while continuing trade dialogues with different countries and with the EU. Turkey is one of those countries. With the end of the transition period granted to the UK, it was announced on December 24, 2020, that an agreement had been reached between the parties. Immediately after this, a free trade agreement (FTA) was signed between Turkey and the UK on December 29, 2020.

It would be easy to perceive that the future relations between Turkey and the UK are a crucial issue, considering the fact that the UK, which left the Customs Union by leaving the European Union, is one of the three largest export markets for Turkey. With the completion of the transition period as of December 31, 2020, the rights of Turkish nationals to take employment as workers in businesses in the UK under the Ankara Agreement ended as well. (4)

The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement within the Framework of Expectations for Brexit

Following the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, different options regarding the planned trade agreement between the UK and the EU were repeatedly mentioned. The main options were based on existing arrangements between the EU and countries such as Norway, Turkey, Switzerland, Ukraine, and Canada, while the option of leaving the EU with 'no deal' remained in place. (5) It is understood from the official statement made by the UK Government right after the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement by the European Union that a decision had already been made among the topical models between the parties.TheUK PrtmeMinister Johnson's request, as discussed below, was reflected in the public opinion polls erequently us ed mthe counSry during the Brcxil process.

Graph 1: A Survey for the EU-UK Trade Agreement A Canada Plus style free trade deal for the UK with the EU 32% WTO trade rules 22% No deal is signed, and the UK reverts to WTO trade rules 21% Remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European 11% Free Trade Area (EFTA) A second referendum on the UK's membership of the EU 10% The Chequers Deal 4% Source: What UK Thinks, 2018 (6) Note: Table made from pie chart. For example, in a survey conducted in the UK between October 8-10, 2018, the most common answer to the question "What is your preferred option for the UK's future relationship with the EU?" was "Canada Plus style free traded deal."

The statement sent by Prime Minister Johnson to the UK Parliament on February 3, 2020, expressed the desire for a deal reflecting the international best practices set forth in the FTAs and already accepted by the EU and one that could be developed when necessary. It was stated that this agreement should include full free trade between the UK and the EU with no tariffs, fees, charges, or quantitative restrictions, and trade-in services that go beyond standard commitments to cover a wide range of key arees, perticularly...