No Questions Asked? Development and the Paradox of China's Africa Policy.

• Author: Batty, Fodei
• Position: ARTICLE

Introduction

Is China preying on Africa's resources and undermining development and democracy on the continent by supporting authoritarian regimes, as several scholars and analysts have claimed? (1) This paper takes a contrary viewpoint and argues that Chinas investments in Africa, now totaling well in excess of $100 billion and growing, (2) could be ultimately counterproductive for Chinas interests in Africa if the lessons of modernization theory hold, and if China continues to indiscriminately conduct business with Africa's authoritarian regimes under its "no questions asked" foreign policy. According to the postulates of modernization theory, economic growth creates an educated middle class that aspires for democracy and a free society. (3) Thus, if Chinese investments are, in fact, producing jobs in Africa and helping foster economic growth on the continent, then Chinese policymakers should be most worried about several attendant effects of economic development over the longer term, such as its mutual relationship with democracy and freer societies. Although the projected relationships and expectations between economic development and democracy have, so far, failed to emerge within China itself, the nucleus of such outcomes exists within many African societies, as this paper makes clear.

At the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit held in Beijing, China on September 3-4, 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated Chinas "five-no approach" foreign policy in its relations with Africa as: "(i) no interference in African countries' pursuit of development paths that fit their national conditions; (ii) no interference in African countries' internal affairs; (iii) no imposition of our will on African countries; (iv) no attachment of political strings to assistance to Africa; (v) and no seeking of selfish political gains in investment and financing cooperation with Africa." (4) Going further, President Xi said: "We hope this "five-no" approach could apply to other countries as they deal with matters regarding Africa. For China, we are always Africa's good friend, good partner and good brother. No one could undermine the great unity between the Chinese people and the African people." (5)

Drawing from the evidence of recent electoral contestations and the political and popular discourse in Africa and among the African diaspora, I argue that Xi's stated principles of China's engagement with African countries are misguided and outdated because they are out of tandem with popular aspirations for the continent's future. However, China cannot export or address democracy because it is itself governed by an authoritarian regime that does not have any experience with democratic ideals and would not know how to translate such ideals to other societies, even if it wanted to. Furthermore, preaching democracy overseas would serve to delegitimize the Chinese Communist Party at home after it has maintained a stranglehold on political power in China since 1949. Ultimately, Chinas current Africa policy could also be counterproductive for China itself.

To be clear, I do not ignore or make assumptions about the reports of widespread corruption in Africa frequently cited as one of the main reasons for bad governance in African countries that drives African politicians to covet "easy money" from China. Rather, the point is that Chinas current Africa policy fails to recognize, or ignores the fact, that what Africans really want is a model of democratic governance that China is incapable of offering them. (6)

Unless there is a change in investment strategy or unless it is the case that Chinese infiltration and exploitation of the continent's resources is so debilitating as to make it virtually impossible for any gains to be realized, then Chinas sustained investments in African countries in pursuit of the interests described by President Xi should eventually produce the necessary conditions for economic development. Economic development could subsequently expand the sizes of the educated and aspirational African middle classes forming a critical mass with differing voices on Chinas contentious presence in their countries. In a virtuous cycle proposed by modernization theory, which is exemplified by the case of South Korea beginning in the 1960s under the Park regime, (7) the middle classes are much more likely to prioritize political liberalization. This should increase the likelihood of advancing and deepening democratization that, subsequently, should help rid the continent of authoritarian governance and Chinas influence, if China continues its "no questions asked" policy that condones authoritarian governments in Africa.

As a caveat, the components of the argument for a reciprocal relationship between development and democracy that could lead to increased dissent over China in Africa are hard to unpack because development is fungible and hard to disaggregate in aid-recipient countries. It is difficult, for example, to distinguish between what intervention, Chinese or Western aid, is responsible for producing a specific outcome, such as increased civil society activism in a country and who should take credit for such increase. (8) It is also difficult to pinpoint exact time points for the emergence of specific outcomes, such as an educated and aspirational middle class. For example, it took South Korea eight years to become a democracy after it became an industrial economy. (9) What is clear, however, is that the overall expected outcomes, such as increased political competence and efficacy of citizenries, which come with the kind of investments China is making in various sectors of African countries are highly probable owing to the consistent finding of a reciprocal relationship between development and democracy.

From North-South to South-South Exploitation?

Indeed, we are already seeing some of the counter-effects of Chinas investment activities in motion in countries such as Sierra Leone where China became a major election issue in 2018 at the expense of the incumbent All People's Congress Party (APC). As that country headed into closely contested presidential and parliamentary elections on March 7, 2018, several issues regarding the economy, corruption, endemic poverty, the embezzlement of donor funds intended for the Ebola epidemic and the mudslide disaster of 2017, and the citizenship of presidential aspirants and candidates for parliament dominated the campaigns for votes. In addition, two videos involving the Chinese presence in the country appeared on social media and went viral on WhatsApp, Facebook, and other platforms frequented by Sierra Leoneans at home and in the diaspora in the days before the country voted. The videos generated streams of conversations and were widely credited by analysts for turning the electoral tide against the unpopular but resilient APC government.

In one of the videos and several accompanying still photographs, an APC parliamentary candidate is flanked by two Chinese nationals dressed in APC shirts and colors as the candidate and his entourage meet and canvass voters at a campaign event. (10) The impression was that the candidate of the incumbent APC Party had the backing or endorsement of the Chinese. (11) The Chinese embassy in Freetown was later compelled to issue a strenuous denial of interfering in the Sierra Leone elections nevertheless the damage was done. In the second video, Sylvanus Koroma, a brother of the incumbent APC president Ernest Koroma appears drunkenly touting the connections between his brother's administration and China, including plans for the Chinese to construct a new international airport outside Freetown, the capital of Sierra Leone, that will cost over $300 million. The opposition seized upon the optics and purported message of both videos to effectively make the case for voting against the APC to the electorate. As the Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) put it, Sylvanus Koroma was "...priggishly insulting Sierra Leoneans by chanting the insinuation that the APC has sold the land to their Chinese godfathers and that there is nothing anyone can do about that." (12)

Both videos were significant...