A new Turkish foreign policy: Towards proactive "moral realism".

• Author: Keyman, E. Fuat
• Position: ARTICLE

ABSTRACT In a time when our globalizing world is confronted by a deepening global turmoil, political instability and multiplying security threats have set in motion a global tectonic shift. Turkey is not immune from these challenges; on the contrary, with its pivotal state/regional leadership position, its foreign policy choices will shape the effectiveness of any international effort for enduring peace and stability in the region. While Turkey's proactive mode of operation since 2002 has remained, its vision, identity, and strategy have gained new characteristics. Over the last two years we have witnessed not only a reset, but the emergence of a new Turkish foreign policy whose proactive nature and main principles are shaped by what I call 'moral realism,' that combines hard power-based military assertiveness and humanitarian norms in addition to new capacity- and strategy-based parameters.

Introduction

The imploding political stability and multiplying security threats over a vast geography, from the greater Middle East to Europe's gates, have set in motion a global tectonic shift. (1) A refugee crisis of biblical proportions, the problem of ISIS, increased terrorist attacks targeting urban populations, and the mushrooming of "failed states" in the region suggest no single nation or community is immune from the tightening grip of insecurity around the central tenets of humanity. Turkey is not immune from these challenges and security risks; on the contrary, it is at the epicenter of this global shift. Both its domestic affairs and foreign policy are exposed to these developments. While expectations vis-a-vis Turkey's role and involvement in the Middle East increase, challenges originating from the Middle East confront Turkey more than ever before. Turkey's domestic and foreign policy choices will shape not only the future of this region but also the effectiveness of any international, concerted effort for enduring peace and stability.

In order to respond more effectively to these unprecedented challenges and security risks, Turkish foreign policy has been radically reset over the last two years. While its proactive mode of operation since 2002 has remained, its vision, its identity, and its strategy have evolved. The radical reset of Turkish foreign policy since 2015, as will be analyzed in detail throughout this paper, involves a rupture rather than continuity with the 2002-2010/15 "Davutoglu era." (2) I argue that over the last two years we have been witnessing not only a foreign policy reset but also the emergence of a new Turkish foreign policy whose proactive nature and main principles are shaped by what I call proactive "moral realism," which combines hard power-based military assertiveness and humanitarian norms. (3)

In the post-Davutoglu era, foreign policy in Turkey has emerged with proactive moral realism as its main motto and modus operandi. Moral realism should be seen not as a conjectural choice that Turkey has made to respond to security risks; on the contrary, it seems to have the potential to define its foreign policy in the years to come. Unlike the 2002-2010 Davutoglu era, in which proactive foreign policy articulated soft power coupled with civilizational multilateralism, moral realism is a strategic choice made in order to achieve three goals simultaneously: to maintain proactivism; to continue to promote the primacy of humanitarian norms and moral responsibility to protect human lives; and to respond effectively and assertively to security risks and challenges through hard power. (4) Since 2015, with its humanitarian approach to the refugee crisis and its military involvement in Syria to fight against both ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers' Party and its Syrian counterpart, the Democratic Union Party (PKK/PYD/YPG), Turkey has been able to combine humanitarianism and realism, which I call moral realism. In fact, among the many great and middle power actors involved in Syria and Iraq, from America and Russia to Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is only Turkey that has implemented moral realism in its proactive engagements. As our globalizing world continues to be more crisis-ridden, as geopolitical power games among great actors continue to shape world politics, and as interest rather than norm continues to define state behavior, proactive moral realism seems to endure in defining and shaping Turkish foreign policy and its regional and global engagements. (5)

To substantiate this argument, I will map the ways in which foreign policy has evolved since the beginning of the AK Party rule in 2002. In doing so, I will explore continuities and ruptures in identity and behavior. There are three conditions that must be met in order for a country's engagement in proactive foreign policy to be successful: (a) there has to be a suitable environment for it; (b) there has to be capacity to implement it effectively; and (c) there has to be a formulated strategy. In what follows, I will map the evolution of Turkish foreign policy since 2002 by focusing on these three benchmarks: environment, capacity, and strategy.

Environment: Turkey as a "Pivotal State/Regional Power"

Two decades ago in his influential work The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, Zbigniew Brzezinski suggests:

Gravely increasing the instability of the Eurasian Balkans and making the situation potentially much more explosive is the fact that two of the adjoining major nation-states, each with a historically imperial, cultural, religious, and economic interest in the region--namely, Turkey and Iran--are themselves volatile in their geopolitical orientation and are internally potentially vulnerable. Were these two states to become destabilized, it is quite likely that the entire region would be plunged into massive disorder, with the ongoing ethnic and territorial conflicts spinning out of control and the region's already delicate balance of power severely disrupted. Accordingly, Turkey and Iran are not only important geostrategic players but are also geopolitical pivots, whose own internal condition is of critical importance to the fate of the region. Both are middle-sized powers, with strong regional aspirations and a sense of their historical significance. (6) Since Brzezinski penned this description of Turkey in 1997, significant changes and transformations in world politics have occurred--from global terror to Arab Uprisings, from human tragedy to failed states, from global economic crisis to global climate change--giving rise to global turmoil and multiple crises of globalization, as well as generating important impacts on foreign policy. Yet, Brzezinski's diagnostic statement about Turkey, emphasizing both its regional power identity and the importance of domestic stability for the sustainability of this role, has remained true. Turkey has become a 'geopolitical pivot' and 'regional power' in our globalizing world. It has been initiating a proactive, multi-dimensional, and constructive foreign policy in many areas, ranging from contributing to peace and stability in the Middle East to playing an active role in countering terrorism and extremism, from becoming a new "energy hub." While acting as an effective humanitarian state aiming at managing the recent refugee crisis, it has been making a significant contribution to the enhancement and betterment of the human condition where development assistance is needed.

As a pivotal state/regional power, Turkey's foreign policy has been dynamic, transforming and modifying based on its environment. Since the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, Turkey has been at the center of global and regional challenges. With its long borders with Syria and Iraq and geographical bridge between East and West, it has been affected by global turmoil. Yet at the same time, it has been seen as a pivot whose role is crucial to tackling such challenges effectively. Significant...