Mapping the Genesis of the Abraham Accords: Elite Preferences, Rising Nationalism, and the Quest for Political Stability.

• Author: Cinkara, Gokhan

Introduction

This commentary analyzes the Abraham Accords, the subsequent diplomatic initiatives, and efforts to create a security umbrella through regional geopolitical shifts and ideological transformations. The main factors that led to the emergence of the Abraham Accords can be articulated as elite preferences in the Arabian Gulf, rising nationalism, and the perennial quest for political stability sought by constituent elements of Gulf society.

The foremost premise that needs to be established is that the accords are a result of the relationship maintained by the ruling elite and their political regimes. The survival of monarchies in the political field depends on social stability and highly rationalized foreign policy. Monarchies must either eliminate or manage threats that could be directed toward them both on the domestic and external levels. It is valid to point out that the existence of national identities and the institutionalization of regional alliances against geopolitical imbalances gained pace in the post-Arab Spring period for kings or emirs who themselves represent the political body of monarchies.

Secondly, in conjunction with the above, the nature of social affiliation (religious, ethnic, or cultural) is important and can be cited as the source of widespread discontent toward the political elite and their precarious position. As a dynamic shaping the process, the means of communication and the fluidity of information began to create a political consciousness that transcended national borders and local cultures to the point of connecting Arabic-speaking peoples on an unprecedented scale. As a fact backed by historical reality, the role of the masses in determining political representation has been the case since the French Revolution. In the Arab Spring, it was clear that social mobilization posed a threat to the political schema of the Gulf with the combination of political consciousness that transcends national borders and the desire for massification with a pronounced revolutionary character taking form.

Thus, the ruling elite of the Gulf sought methods to limit social belonging within the confines of national borders. To this ultimate end, they aimed to strengthen the new middle classes as opposed to the defunct traditional classes by prioritizing social reform projects in a way that would nurture and strengthen the national consciousness. For this purpose, an ultimate design of nationalism, unequivocally tied to and oriented toward the country, the homeland, was encouraged by the ruling elite. The end goal of this self-imposed mission civilisatrice is to conform social tendencies to this new political trend and to make it a dominant political creed gradually, but astutely. At this point, the Abraham Accords proved that the main component of the value system that determines foreign policy is national affiliations rather than historical self-obligations motivated by religious identity.

Lastly, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Tehran has been attempting to transform the Shiite Arab population in the Middle East into a proxy power as an extension of its strategy of expanding its geopolitical influence and deepening its political hinterland. For Arab countries with a Shiite population, this is a security threat and a source of political instability. Several Iranian proxy organizations (Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi, and the Houthis) are active in the Arab geography. The Middle East remains the singular region where Iran manipulates sectarian divisions and uses them as leverage for its own benefit in the internal political balance of the relevant country. With the Abraham Accords, the Gulf countries see a solution to overcoming this problem by encircling Iran with a common security umbrella.

Blocs Established around Israel in the Middle East: Nasserism and Pan-Shiism

The existing literature on the Abraham Accords dwells largely on structural and security-related rationales as the main determinant in the process. (1) They also allude to the foreign policy input of then U.S. President Donald J. Trump as one of the main driving forces behind the process --necessitated by U.S. strategic rationale, which oversaw a process of limiting direct engagement with the Middle East. While this commentary does not dispute these premises, it tackles the question of the Abraham Accords with a political science lens--aimed more at scrutinizing elite behavior in the Gulf rather than the powers dynamics stipulated by studies on foreign policy and geopolitics. Hence, this commentary sets out to provide an introduction to a wider analysis of elite behavior in the Gulf, and how this is linked to the formulation of domestic and foreign policy.

Our scrutiny over elite preferences begins with an analysis of two ideological currents in the Arab world that sprouted after the establishment of the State of Israel: Nasserism and Pan-Shiism. These currents form the ideological groundwork that would eventually lead to the Abraham Accords. The ideological structure that formed in the post-1960 period--exacerbated by the Islamic Revolution in Iran--has motivated Gulf elites to tackle this unique structural phenomenon.

Faced with the danger of becoming a perpetual minority, deported, or killed, Palestinians began to convey that their problem was essentially an Arab problem. The antagonistic relationship that started between Israel and the Arab states was thus embodied in Gamal Abdel Nasser as a result of this rationale. The main dynamic shaping Nasser's acute political influence beyond the borders of Egypt stems from the Arab collective's desire for unified, singular politics, often manifest in visions of a common Arab realm, a singular Arab state, and the consolidation of the fractured Arab geographic polity. (2)

During the rule of Gamal Abdel Nasser (1952-1970) Cairo's choices in regional geopolitical affairs forced the countries neighboring Egypt to act accordingly. Egypt was also coupled with the Soviet Union's strategy of expanding its military influence on a global scale with the onset of the Cold War. Egypt's intensifying relationship with the Soviets led Israel to alternative diplomatic avenues to address this situation. It should be noted that Israel's options were severely limited at this point as the state of war between Arab countries and Israel persisted.

As a result, no Arab country could be expected to openly engage in a relationship with the Israelis. In addition , it did not seem plausible for hypothetical open engagement to transform into a security pact, considering the political and societal dynamics at play in Arab countries at the time. Due to these factors, Egypt became the center of Nasser's regional leadership, both to feed on this basin of societal emotions and to fill the vacuum of regional leadership. The overall sustainability of this model of leadership relied on geopolitical support spaces and engagement in limited social economic reform projects. (3)

Iran benefited thoroughly from the collapse of Arab political unity, which particularly gained momentum after the Arab Spring. Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and its continued presence until the 2000s provided the inevitable rise of Hezbollah in South Lebanon. Iran thus cultivated a successful relationship by investing in the heart of the Arab political realm...