Levantine Challenges on Turkish Foreign Policy/Turk Dis Politikasi'nda Levant.

• Author: Aydin, Mustafa
• Position: Report

Introduction

Modern day Turkey has not seen itself as part of the Levant and has not looked at the region as an integrated unit of analysis until recently, and thus has not taken a holistic approach towards the region. Turkey's perception of the Eastern Mediterranean was restricted to Cyprus, and the rest of the Levant was construed as part of the wider Middle East. (1) Accordingly, the Turkish academic literature does not refer to the Levant, except on rare occasions where it actually discusses the Cyprus problem. (2)

Regardless, as one of the most powerful states in the region, Turkey has been an important actor in Levantine politics and played an active role in the region during the 1930s in response to Italy's expansionist tendencies towards the Eastern Mediterranean. The 1936 proposal to create Mediterranean Pact was one such example. But by the outbreak of the Second World War, these sporadic ideas had not yet transformed into a full-fledged regional policy and then after the war, the region was perceived only within the context of the emerging East-West rivalry. (3)

The end of the Cold War allowed Turkey to redefine its priorities in international politics. Prompted by its growing economic needs after the liberalization program of the early 1980s, Turkey prioritized its economic relationships in its neighbourhood rather than focusing on global security concerns. This transformation into what Kirisci referred to as a "trading state" saw Turkey increase its focus on its neighbourhood. (4) The Levant, however, with the exception of Israel, remained rather insignificant in most of the early post-Cold War era. Only after the rise of the Justice and Development Party (JDP) to power in 2002 did the wider Middle East, including the Levant, attract increased attention from Turkey.

While the JDP emphasized the importance of economic prosperity and stability in Turkey's neighbourhood, the country's regional policies shifted in several aspects. Rather than focusing on long-standing problems such as the Cypriot imbroglio, the JDP preferred new policy tools to improve Turkey's relations with its neighbours such as visa-liberalization, mediation, building industrial zones and free trade areas, and joint cabinet meetings. Thus, a new policy line, formulated as 'zero problems with neighbours', was spearheaded by Ahmed Davutoglu, the then Chief Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister and later the Minister of Foreign Affairs. (5)

In addition to the new policy approach, the country's political transformation and the emergence of new political classes with different preferences as well as the problems in accession negotiations with the EU triggered a transformation in Turkish foreign policy. Especially after JDP's second electoral victory in 2007, Turkey began to focus more closely on what it deemed it's neighbourhood, an area that encompassed the Levant, the Near East (including Iran and the South Caucasus), and North Africa. As a result, Turkey's relations with the countries of the region have increased considerably and reorientation of its foreign policy has become discernable.

Meanwhile, several regional and international developments provided momentum for Turkey's engagement with the Levant. First, the discoveries of hydrocarbon resources off the coasts of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt (Tamar field in 2009, Leviathan in 2010, Aphrodite in 2011, and Zohr in 2015) presented opportunities not only for the littoral states, but also for international actors. While the newly found reserves, with an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas in the Levant Basin, sparked a debate over the region's potential to become an additional source of energy for European markets, (6) it also encouraged Turkey in its strategy aimed at turning it into an 'energy hub' in the Eastern Mediterranean. As it is at the centre of the most direct and economic transport route from the region to Europe, Turkey is uniquely positioned to benefit from the development of Levantine energy resources. However, new challenges emerged as a result of these discoveries in terms of ownership of the resources, delimitation of territorial waters, maritime borders, and exclusive economic zones under conflicting atmosphere.

Secondly, the outbreak of the Arab Spring uprisings in late 2010 created additional security problems for regional and international actors. Like others, Turkey was caught unprepared by the widespread political instability of the region, which subsequently has had a serious impact on Turkey's domestic stability as well as its relations with the regional states. While Turkey had earlier managed to establish somewhat workable political and economic relations with the existing regimes in the region, the chaos that followed the outbreak of the Arab Spring uprisings has disrupted these relations. Whereas Turkey previously faced an "ethics versus interest" dilemma in its connections with the autocratic regimes, (7) its policies of supporting pro-democracy actors, providing aid to opposition groups, and aiming for regime change in neighbouring countries has resulted in short-term problems and long-term uncertainties.

Finally, various developments in the surrounding region over the last few decades, such as the instability wrought by United States' invasion of Iraq to the continued stagnation of the Arab-Israeli peace process, have continued to fuel region-wide turmoil, increasing political instability, slowing economic development, and affecting the balance of power. While the region's full potential could only be unleashed with the onset of stability, history demonstrates that stability can only be established when the region is controlled by a hegemonic power, (8) or an agreement is achieved among the paternalist states. (9)

This paper will first look at the recent history of Turkey's relations with the Levantine countries. Then, it will focus on the regional and international developments that influence Turkey's policies towards the region. It will argue that developments in recent years have provided space for Turkey to take a more active role in the region, but that Turkey's own limitations, policy choices, and regional dynamics have restricted its ability to do so.

Recent History of Turkey's Levant Connection

Since late 1990s, Turkey's engagement with the Levant, and more broadly with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, has become increasingly noticeable. In the absence of a clearly defined Levant policy, the sum of Turkey's bilateral relations with regional countries encapsulates its overall Levant policy.

After decades of tense relations with some of the regional countries, primarily the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and Syria, Turkey became eager in early 2000s to solve or at least move beyond these problems. Modification of its foreign policy away from security concerns towards an economic focus originally appeared as a result of Turkey's move from import-substitution development strategy to an export-led growth strategy in the 1980s. The liberalization of the Turkish economy prompted the county to focus on nearby markets. Economic considerations would become paramount during the 1990s when Turkey "became increasingly concerned with ... striking deals with foreign governments" in an effort to sell its goods and generate foreign direct investment. (10) By the time JDP came to power in 2002, the economic consequences of foreign policy were already weighing heavily on decision-making and the main policy motto of the time, i.e., "zero problems with neighbours", was mainly built upon the pre-JDP perspective of developing closer relations with neighbours to further economic prosperity.

Accordingly, a new line of policy, designed to benefit from Turkey's central location and historical connections was put forward by the JDP during the 2000s. (11) One of the earliest examples was Turkey's Cyprus policy, where the first JDP government implemented a major policy shift when it supported the peace plan brokered by the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2004. This move could be seen within the wider context of Turkey's changing Levant policy and moving away from exclusive determinacy of security concerns. (12)

In its first term (2002-2007), the JDP focused mainly on Turkey's approximation with the EU law and the related domestic reforms, eventually leading the country to begin accession negotiations with the EU in October 2005. These negotiations would have significant implications on the future course of Turkish foreign policy. The reforms in general improved the country's political stability, supported economic growth, enabled major strides towards democratization, decreased the role of military in political life, and helped change the foreign policy decision-making process. As a result, the influence of the military in decision-making decreased significantly and the policy-shaping role of the National Security Council diminished. (13) As the military had played a decisive role throughout the 1990s on Turkey's international relations, the decline of its influence also had a profound affect on the country's foreign policy. (14)

In the meantime, the emergence of a new Anatolian bourgeoisie also had an impact on Turkey's policies in its neighbourhood. Through their closer connection with the government, the newly established Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD) of small to medium sized businesses from Anatolia pushed for closer economic relations with the countries in the wider Middle East. (15) Using Turkey's geographical proximity and their cultural affinity, these businessmen enthusiastically penetrated into the Levant, (16) forcing the foreign policy establishment to follow them. As a result, until disrupted by the Arab Spring, JDP governments expanded Turkey's relations with neighbouring countries using new tools such as visa- liberalization, free trade-zones, and joint cabinet meetings.

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