Key Issues in Turkish Politics before the 2023 Elections.

• Author: Beris, Hamit Emrah

Introduction

2023 marks the centennial of the establishment of the Republic of Turkiye. In this context, the year 2023 has a very important symbolic meaning for the Turkish people. Another factor that makes this year special for Turkiye is the presidential and parliamentary elections to be held this year. For many people, the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections, to be held on May 14, are seen as one of the most important elections in Turkish political life. There are also reports in the Western press that the most important elections to be held in the world in 2023 will be the presidential elections in Turkiye. (1) Onefifth of the entire Republican period was governed by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The AK Party, which came to power with the elections held on November 3, 2002, has completed 20 years in government. Opinion polls conducted before the 2023 elections show that the AK Party will again be in first place among the parties that run in the elections. President Erdogan is also the favorite candidate in the presidential election, which will be held on the same day as the general elections. Over the past 20 years, Erdogan has continued to be the most powerful political actor in the country, a trend that is closely related to his good rapport with society.

In 2017, Turkiye amended its Constitution and adopted a new system of government called the "presidential government system" to replace the parliamentary system. In the elections held in 2018, AK Party Chairman Erdogan was elected the first president of the new system. Following the introduction of the new system, the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Good Party (IP), the latter founded by a group of deputies who left the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), decided to form an alliance. Over time, some smaller parties also joined this alliance. There are six members of this formation, which is currently called the Nation Alliance. (2) In addition, the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), known for its closeness to the PKK terrorist organization, is also an unofficial partner of this alliance. The opposition bloc, which is officially described as a Table of Six because it has six official members, draws a very fragmented image in itself. (3) The parties that make up the opposition bloc have different approaches in many areas, especially immigration, economy, terrorism, and foreign policy. The common point is that they all oppose President Erdogan. Apart from this, it is not possible to say that the opposition has developed a common perspective on the future of the country.

In response, the AK Party and the MHP decided to act together under the name People's Alliance. This cooperation, which first started in the 2018 elections, continued in the 2019 local government elections. Although the MHP was not an active member of the government, it fully supported the AK Party's policies. AK Party governments also paid attention to the sensitivities of the MHP. Thus, relations between the two parties progressed smoothly. Cooperation continued before the 2023 elections, and the AK Party and the MHP announced Erdogan as their joint candidate for the presidency in the 2023 elections months ago. (4) As the election approached, both alliances began to articulate concrete policy proposals for specific issues on the country's agenda. Before the elections, the political debates in Turkiye focused on four main axes: refugees, the economy, nationalism, and the Kurdish question. Approaches to these decisive issues demonstrate the political positions in Turkiye. It is possible to say that each bloc's approach to the aforementioned hot topics defines the differences between the government and the opposition.

The Issue of Refugees

The important topic of discussion that has dominated the political agenda in Turkiye in recent years is the issue of migration. There have been increasing waves of migration throughout the world in the last 20 years. The inability of many states to cope with the turmoil in their lands, terrorism, civil war, and mass murders have caused people to flock to nations with relatively better living conditions. In this context, it can be said that the optimistic expectation after the Cold War that the world would be a safer place was in vain. (5) Many new factors have been added to the traditional conflict processes arising from ideological differences and identity problems. In addition, at the end of the Cold War, the ambitious projects of Western states, especially the U.S., to end dictatorships in different geographies, especially the Middle East, and create a more democratic world caused an authority vacuum after the collapse of those political regimes. The space left by authoritarian and totalitarian regimes could not be filled by fragile and failed states. The resulting tribal wars, acts of terrorism, civil wars, and other issues that threaten security have resulted in massive waves of migration, (6) with factors such as hunger, poverty, civil wars, terrorism, and the climate crisis considered push factors that cause people to leave their place of residence. (7) In addition, people's belief that there are better alternatives to living in other parts of the world are pull factors for migration. In this respect, migration has become an increasingly unavoidable reality across the world.

The worldwide waves of migration had a different effect on Turkiye. After the beginning of the Syrian civil war, many Syrian citizens fleeing the conflict took refuge in Turkiye. (8) The immigrant problem, which was initially thought to be temporary, became permanent due to the prolongation of the war in Syria. Currently, Turkiye hosts the highest number of displaced persons under temporary protection in the world. In addition to those coming from Syria, many people from Afghanistan and some African countries immigrate to Turkiye. This situation has led to problems in migration administration that continue to put pressure on domestic politics.

When the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, Turkiye initially followed an 'open-door' policy and started to settle immigrants, whom it described as 'guests,' in border provinces. Turkiye's open-door policy included three difficult elements: ensuring temporary protection, upholding the principle of nonrefoulement, and providing optimal humanitarian assistance. (9) After 2013, with the effect of ISIS' territorial dominance in some regions in Syria, forced migration increased even more. (10) According to data from January 2023, there are 3,585,447 Syrians under temporary protection in Turkiye. Only 47,686 of them still stay in the seven migrant camps set up in five provinces. (11) As a result, the vast majority of Syrians under temporary protection are part of social life. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' (UNHCR) 2021 annual report, Turkiye hosts the largest number of refugees in the world with 3.80 million people. This figure is double that of Colombia, which ranks second and hosts 1.80 million refugees. (12) Therefore, the phenomenon of migration continues to affect both society and politics in Turkiye. As a matter of fact, the world's 2015 migrant crisis was resolved with the initiative and responsibility of Turkiye, which made an agreement with Western countries. (13)

Migration is the main issue of political debates in Turkiye. From the very beginning, President Erdogan has maintained a humane approach to refugees, while almost all opposition parties have a negative stance toward immigrants. The party that most prominently uses anti-refugee rhetoric is the Victory Party (ZP), founded by Umit Ozdag, who resigned from the IP. (14) However, almost all opposition parties, including the CHP and the IP, state that refugees from Syria will be sent back to their country if opposition parties take control of the government. (15) In this context, it is noteworthy that the only political party that takes a position in favor of immigrant rights is the AK Party. Here, it can be said that Erdogan's ability to persuade the public comes into play once again. Erdogan prevented a strong reaction against Syrians and other immigrants in society. It is known that politicians in many parts of the world place immigration and refugees at the center of their political discourse. On the other hand, Erdogan tries to solve the refugee problem through a humanitarian perspective and has effectively persuaded society to support his solutions.

Migration management, which proceeds in line with a humanitarian perspective, is one of the most important pillars of Turkiye's push for a fairer international system. To put it more clearly, Turkiye's policy is the most obvious example of an ethical political approach toward asylum seekers. The prestige and reliability of Turkiye and President Erdogan in the eyes of many societies in the world are closely related to his attitude that prioritizes ethical principles in the face of international problems. This principled attitude, in a way, became one of the elements of Turkiye's soft power. Turkiye is expanding its sphere of influence on a global scale through the humanitarian steps it has taken in migration management. The consistency of the policies has enabled Turkiye to gain and maintain a certain position in the international community. In this respect, it is possible to say that Turkiye has governed the massive wave of migration as successfully as possible.

On the other hand, the increase in immigration to Turkiye is closely related to the country becoming a center of attraction. Due to its active policies, both Turkiye's visibility and influence in the international arena have increased. (16) This situation results in many people from different countries looking for their future hopes in Turkiye. Undoubtedly, pull factors are as important as push factors for migration. Internal turmoil, terrorism...