July 15: political economy of a foiled coup.

• Author: Unay, Sadik
• Position: Fetullah Gulen Terror Organization

Introduction

After a long respite from the era of regular military interventions, a military coup d'etat was staged to interrupt democratic life in Turkey on the night of July 15, 2016. A large network of military officers; military-civilian bureaucrats; and members of the business world, academia and the mass media affiliated with the Fetullah Gulen Terror Organization (FETO) has been confirmed as the group of perpetrators who plotted and attempted the coup.

It has now come to light that FETO conspired to develop a shadow state or parallel, state-within-a-state structure in Turkey, which gained strength and legitimacy in national and international public opinion via its media, education, and banking entities, owing to its cooperation with clandestine power centers. FETO has concentrated on gaining prestige in the international community through the adoption of discourses such as 'Moderate Islam' and 'Interfaith Dialogue;' however, it has stayed away as much as possible from traditional Islamic groups and civil society organizations. With the aim of penetrating into Turkey's military, civilian, and bureaucratic mechanisms, FETO opted for a pragmatic interaction with political parties (depending on the conjuncture) and tried to establish a shadow state structure in the country.

FETO adopted a long-term strategy in the service of a Messianic religious ideology; to this end, it recruited qualified youth, provided career opportunities legally or illegally, and placed its members in key positions in society. FETO mobilized both financial capital and human resources through its entities located in a wide spectrum of countries, stretching from Central Asia to Africa, and from the Balkans to Latin America; as such, its parallel structure within Turkey reflects a larger, global network. During a previous coup attempt in the period of December 17-25, 2013, FETO members, who were vested in security units, media outlets, and the judiciary, made concerted efforts to erase then Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AK Party from Turkey's political scene. Upon the failure of these efforts, FETO mobilized its members, nested in the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF), to take action against the chain of command on the night of July 15, 2016.

Despite all of the steps towards democratic consolidation that Turkey has taken, both within the frame of its accession bid to the European Union (EU) in the 2000s, and in the legal-constitutional reforms it initiated for the demilitarization of the country, such an unusual coup attempt indicates that Turkey has not completely left the threat of military coups behind. Turkey initially set out on its adventure of democracy by adopting a multi-party political system in 1950, and underwent a normalization process in politics under the late Prime Minister Adnan Menderes and the late President Turgut Ozal. Turkey riveted this process in the socio-economic arena as well, through improvements in standards of living and welfare. On the other hand, regularly recurring military coups have paralyzed Turkey's social and political life, leaving the country isolated in the face of grave macroeconomic crises.

The military coups of May 27, 1960; March 12, 1971; and September 12, 1980 weakened Turkish democracy in the eyes of the international community and led to grave socio-economic collapses. Differently from previous coups, the February 28, 1997 intervention by the Joint Chiefs of Staff was contrived "to balance democracy" in Turkey, and it still is fresh in people's minds as a "post-modern" coup, the economic-political and social aspects of which were professionally schemed through the judiciary, the press-media and members of the financial sector. Collectively, coups in Turkey have left indelible marks in the social and collective memory of the country, and have blasted the economy by destroying the environment for investment, expectations for the future, and perception of the rule of law.

This study presents an assessment of the political economy of the coup attempt on July 15, 2016, via the main theoretical approaches to military coups in relation to the economy. In this context, the study looks at the economic background of the pre-coup attempt period, crises scenarios provided by international institutions, and the goals of the perception-management orchestrated by the western world to put a positive spin on the attempted coup.

In the same breath, the study presents in detail the colossal economic power of FETO, amounting to billions of dollars; the holdings, networks of schools and hospitals worldwide, shopping malls, medical and software companies, with which the organization has direct or indirect links. This analysis emphasizes that, in the absence of an economic crisis or danger of a recession, the coup attempt simply and overtly targeted President Erdogan. However, the coup attempt lacked a concrete socio-economic foundation; thus, it was impossible from the very start for it to gain any widespread social support which made it easier to thwart the heinous endeavor.

Theoretical Approaches to Military Coups and their Rationale

Military coups still remain a reality, despite strengthening consensus over the merits of democracy on a global scale, and ever-increasing economic and political interactions in the age of economic globalization and social integration. Indeed, successful coups have occurred 232 times in 94 countries since 1950, and about a quarter of these have overthrown democratically elected governments. The motives that drive the military forces of a nation to take over political rule, allegedly in order to protect national unity by stepping outside their legal jurisprudence, have been quite frequently discussed in the literature. A rich literature exists asserting that military coups tend to take place in rather poor countries with unsettled economic structures and institutions. Based largely on the experiences of African and Latin American countries, whose economic structures mainly rely on raw materials and agricultural products, such economic theories have seldom been applied to Asian countries. (1)

Various studies have been conducted on the negative impacts of coups on national welfare and the development processes of countries, (2) the dynamics of economic underdevelopment or failure to develop, (3) and the relationship between military spending and coups. (4) For instance, Acemoglu and Robinson point out that the likelihood of coups increases during periods of economic difficulties or during recessions, as in the case of Brazil (1964), Chile (1973), and Argentina (1976). (5)

Research on the economic dimensions of coup attempts in Pakistan suggests that export value growth rates and defense spending in the post-coup years of 1951-1998 were lower, as the ailing economic performance of the country increased the risk of coups. (6) Research on the main causes of coups make a point in common that poor economic performance increases the probability of political instability and the risk of coups. The occurrence of economic instability causes or corresponds to political instability, which eventually initiates a process in which armed forces topple a civilian government.

In the last decades, economic theories, developed to examine the main causes of coups, have gradually loomed large. The main idea emphasized in such theories is that bad economic performance substantially increases the risk of a coup. Rosemary O'Kane argues that coup threats and uprisings are most likely, and most often, seen in countries with underdeveloped economies. Research also underlines that such countries are producers of primary goods and raw materials, and rely on the export of primary products; therefore they have fragile economies and unstable levels of income in the face of fluctuations in global market prices.

Economic instability generally leads to uncertainties and causes a government to lose legitimacy. As the probability of political instability rises, the risk of a coup increases as well. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, in their study on poverty, stress that low income in less developed countries triggers political instability and sets the stage for coups. The authors in the same study mention the "coup trap," (7) that is, poor economic performance in less developed countries triggers coups--and coups, in turn, trigger poor economic development. Samuel Huntington, known for his classical studies in political science literature, acknowledges that a poor economy is a factor, which seriously increases the risk for a coup.

Huntington suggests that the years of ailing economy in Latin America made the region's countries more vulnerable to coups than the years of recovering economy and increasing per capita income. Fukuyama agrees with Huntington and points out that political instability, historically and generally, increases in periods of economic failures and recessions. In general, all of the experts on the relationship between military coups and the economy underline that a weak economy leads to the possibility of political instability and increases the risk for coups.

Another approach has been developed on the causes of coups, which has to do with corporate or common interests. According to this approach, the military is more likely to stage a coup if there is a real or perceived threat to their interests, such as a cut in the defense budget. According to Finer two main motives for launching a coup, in general, are: defending "corporate status and privileges," and preserving military autonomy. (8)

Whatever the cause, the relationship between coups and development is clearly negative. The risk for a coup may be driven by many factors such as weak institutions, the military's political power, social conflicts, and economic crises, etc., which also affect a country's development potential. (9) Historical experience shows that military coups create negative impacts on a country's...