Iran and the Gulf: The Era of Hassan Rouhani.

• Author: Zweiri, Mahjoob

Introduction

Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (1) have witnessed various phases since the establishment of the Islamic Republic following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Typically, these relations have been antagonistic, confrontational, and mainly influenced by the Iran-Saudi bilateral ties, with Iran being primarily perceived as a security threat to the GCC.

The Iran-GCC relations reached a critical climax during the two presidential terms of Hassan Rouhani (2013-2017) and (2017-2021), as the Middle Eastern region moved into chaos, with popular uprisings, the so-called 'Arab Spring' erupting in various countries where both Iran and countries of the GCC have directly or indirectly intervened. Furthermore, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (2) was signed and eventually nulled, and other significant incidents have shaped Iran-GCC relations. In particular, the second presidential term of Hassan Rouhani coincided with significant changes in the Gulf, including the former blockade of Qatar, the Yemen war and the engagement of different regional and international players, the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the killing of Qassim Soleimani.

Having taken office following Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), who left a deadlock in Iran's foreign policy, Rouhani's primary objectives as a moderate and pragmatic president were mainly directed towards achieving openness and repairing the international image of Iran. This included offering greater nuclear transparency, acquiring international trust, and lifting sanctions that potentially damaged the Iranian economy.

However, following the 13th Iranian presidential elections of 2021, and considering the illegibility of Rouhani, who would be the seventh president to run for office, it is important to define and ananalyze the milestones in the Iran-GCC relations during Rouhani's era, particularly in his second term. Within this context, this paper examines the dynamics of Rouhani's foreign policies toward the Gulf during his second presidential term to answer the following question: What legacy would Hassan Rouhani leave when it comes to relations with neighboring GCC countries?

The first part of the paper examines the evolution of Iran-GCC foreign relations from the regime's establishment until the end of the Ahmadinejad era and his legacy by reviewing previous literature and highlighting the main features. The second part focuses on defining Rouhani's foreign policy discourse and slogan, primarily towards the GCC, while addressing the major shifts that have occurred in the region, which implicated Iran's stance under Rouhani towards the GCC as a whole and towards its countries. The final part concludes with establishing Rouhani's legacy regarding Iran's foreign behavior towards the GCC, exploring whether he achieved his foreign ambitions, and providing a vision of significant challenges awaiting the upcoming Iranian president.

Iran-GCC Relations: From Attention to Tension

Iran perceives the Gulf as its "rightful sphere of influence" towards which its policies are "fluid and changeable" and are pragmatic rather than revolutionary. (3) During the 1980s, the recently formed GCC adopted various postures of "deterrence and accommodation" towards Iran, (4) whie the Iranian regime has consistently sought recognition in the Gulf since the end of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). (5) By 1988, this Iranian strategy was re-assessed, leading to a "transition from radicalism to accommodation." By the 1990s, it had transited to pragmatism, which became evident in Iran's neutral stance in the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, (6) thus surviving the isolation status through improving its mutual relations with its neighbors. (7) Later, while President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997) had significant efforts at evolving bonds, it was President Mohammed Khatami (1997-2005) who launched his "dialogue of civilizations," leading to improving ties. Both Rafsanjani and Khatami believed that economic integration is possible when tensions with countries in the region are reduced, (8) so they aimed at achieving normalization in Iran's relations and engaging it in the security architecture of the Gulf. (9) Khatami followed detente as a foreign policy to achieve economic developments post the Iraq-Iran war. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei believes that normalization policies with the Gulf region may not be inconsistent with the Wilayat al-Faqih principle. (10)

During the Khatami era, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran advanced unprecedentedly. (11) However, progress between both countries stalled with the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, ending this period of limited trust. (12) By the end of Khatami's term, GCC states became alert regarding the Iranian involvement in shaping Iraqi politics, (13) as following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the dismissal of a bulwark against Shiites there, GCC states felt exposed to the Iranian influence. (14) Indeed, none of the major regional events were more unwelcome in the GCC than the shifting of power towards the Shiites in Iraq. (15)

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013) adopted a sharp hard-line foreign discourse toward Gulf countries, where he announced resuming uranium enrichment and "instrumentalized Iran's nuclear program as a political tool to spur nationalism." (16) He simultaneously followed a confrontational-assertive foreign approach towards the West and an accommodationist-active approach towards Muslim countries. Under Ahmadinejad's first term of the presidency (2005-2009), bilateral Iran-GCC relations were affected by multiple factors, including ties with and position towards the U.S. and Israel, Iran's increasing regional role and influence after the U.S.-led Iraq invasion, and also dispute over the three islands claimed by the UAE. Despite these tensions, economic and trade ties continued. (17)

Towards the end of Ahmadinejad's second presidential term, disturbances erupted in Syria, which made Gulf countries reconsider their threat perceptions and revive the Iraqi restructuring of power. (18) On another side, Iran's relations deteriorated with Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen as Iran supported Shiites in these countries. (19) However, Ahmadinejad's era was complicated as he followed a disaffection policy towards the GCC as a whole. Perhaps the situation was different for Rouhani. How far has Iran's foreign policy towards the GCC changed during Rouhani's reign? Does that indicate that the presidency influences Iranian politics? Why do policy shifts occur after the president is inaugurated?

The Rouhani Doctrine: A Gleam of Hope

Ahmadinejad had cultivated confrontation with the West, unlike the presidency of Rouhani, which raised hopes and expectations to amend the situation. Indeed, Rouhani's advantage is that he is different from his predecessor. Where former President Ahmadinejad was "confrontational and parochial" in manner, Rouhani is "collegial and worldly." (20) While Ahmadinejad thought of economics as a domestic policy matter, the economic situation was critical to Rouhani, as he believed that strengthening the economy would expand Iran's regional role. Therefore, he assigned technocrats to his cabinet and purged Ahmadinejad affiliates from the government. The Iranian economy had momentarily flourished with Rouhani as currency stabilized, inflation was reduced, and business confidence was partially restored. However, towards the end of his second term, it had seen deterioration. (21)

Rouhani was not a newcomer to the political sphere and is very much a 'regime insider' in the sense that he is "deeply embedded in the Iranian political system." (22) He enjoyed the practice of diplomacy and possessed skills and knowledge on regional security matters, which made him a qualified candidate for the presidency who would contribute to softening security issues with the Gulf. He was the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) (October 1989-August 2005) and participated in security matters in the Gulf. Even before Ahmadinejad arrived in 2005, Rouhani visited Abu Dhabi to calm UAE officials regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad's presidency ended in June 2013, leaving behind a tumultuous foreign policy. Rouhani's Administration came to power to face daunting challenges, such as the nuclear crisis and Iran's economy under sanctions. Rouhani prioritized improving Iran's relations with its neighbors to bring peace and stability to the region. (23) The first positive development was the signing of the nuclear deal, which, directly after, Iran turned to the Gulf and hoped to improve diplomatic ties. However, detente was much more challenging during Rouhani's presidency, as the Arab uprisings continued to disturb the region. (24)

Rouhani's rhetoric is pragmatic and friendly. Mohammad Javad Zarif served as Iran's foreign minister in Hassan Rouhani's cabinet between 2013-2021. In an article published in the Foreign Affairs magazine, Zarif highlighted that the Iranian Foreign Policy in the Rouhani era is prudent, moderate, and pragmatic. He aimed at shifting the Iranian manner towards dialogue and constructive interaction while protecting national security at the same time, achieving comprehensive development, and ending "Iranophobia," as described by Zarif in what came to be known as Rouhani's foreign policy manifesto. During his campaign, he promised to fix the critical state of foreign policy. The Rouhani Administration immediately negotiated with the P5+1 to reach an agreement for the nuclear program." (25) This was...