Impact of Turmoil and Gas Resources in the Eastern Mediterranean on Jordanian Energy Security and Foreign Policy.

• Author: Alshwawra, Ahmad
• Position: ARTICLE

Introduction

The relationship between energy and politics has been gaining more interest in the last 50 years. Realizing the uneven distribution of the hydrocarbon energy resources among the world states, and recognizing that the majority of the states in the world cannot fulfill their energy demands from their domestic resources alone cements energy as a central issue of contemporary international relations. (1) International energy relations must be handled efficiently by the higher authorities in order to negotiate the benefits and costs distributions between mutual parties. (2) This leads to politicizing the energy market and raises the question of whether this energy interdependence acts as a source of cooperation or conflict. Realists and neoliberals have different answers to this question.

The realist geopolitical approach views energy as a source of conflict. For it, the states continuously engage in a zero-sum competition for access to the world energy reserves, which are considered as a fixed declining asset. (3) On the one hand, it considers energy as a source of threat for energy importer states in terms of the implications of supply interruptions and price fluctuation on the state's survival and development. (4) On the other hand, it views energy as an important coercive tool to reach the exporter's foreign policy goals. (5) Based on this approach, conflict is an inherent feature of the energy politics although its frequency and intensity varies.

In contrast, the neoliberal institutionalist global energy governance approach argues that energy is a "potential cooperative international domain." (6) It views conflict as a result of market failure more than an intrinsic feature. Markets can depoliticize the energy relations by enhancing the trade and investment interdependency between the energy importers and exporters. (7) Both importers and exporters have incentives to support the energy market since the market fluctuation will harm all parties; importer in terms of prices and supply continuity, and exporter in terms of the economic implications resulting from market uncertainties. Based on that, it is in the interests of all states in energy globalization to introduce an international energy market with certain rules that encourage a positive sum-cooperation. (8)

The 1973 Arab oil embargo drew global attention to energy security. (9) The concept of securitization is usually related to the writings of Buzan, Wsever and other researchers who follow the Copenhagen School of Security Studies. (10) Securitization of something classifies this thing as an issue of supreme priority and gives the state the right to take any extraordinary measures by raising the issue above the constraints of regular political procedures in a frame of the radical realists of 'ragione di Stato'. (11) Based on this it is stated that, "energy securitization is a process where governments frame energy as an existential threat to the state's interests." (12)

The concept of energy security is highly contested. According to a survey conducted by Ang, et al. in 2015, there are more than 80 different published definitions for energy security between the period 2001 and 2014. (13) Almost all of them consider the theme of energy availability in the definition. The other dominating themes in the definitions are energy prices and infrastructure with more than 70 percent of the definitions incorporating these parameters, (Graph 1). Ang, et al. have also shown that energy security is a dynamic concept. (14) It changes with time and circumstances, new themes and sub-concepts appear while others lose their significance over time. For example, the environmental and energy efficiency aspects became more significant in energy security post 2010, while there was no mention for them in energy security definitions prior to 2006.

The definition of energy security is highly contextual. It differs according to the status of the state(energy importer or exporter), the policies followed by the state and its economic development. (16) Moreover, the perception of risk differs from one state to another based on the geopolitics. The definition is highly dependent on the definer and their position in the society. (17) For example, for the government, energy security is related to the economic development and the survival of the state, whereas for industries, it is related to the profitable continuity of the production cycle, and for end consumers, the definition becomes more relevant to the continuity and affordability of a certain product or service.

Many examples show that even with the existence of agreements and treaties that create the legal basis for cooperation in the energy sector, there is still no guarantee for the continuity of supply. This can be related to interstate conflict like the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute that led to problems with Russian gas supply to the EU in the first decade of this century, (18) or intrastate conflict like the Jordan gas crises--a consequence of the instability and turmoil in Egypt. (19) This proves that developing an efficient, rational and adaptive energy sector in the midst of a multipolar world with an anarchic nature is a core challenge for all states.

The Mediterranean region has witnessed a lot of turbulence in the last decade. The first wave of Arab uprisings, which was identified as one of the 'big four' democratic diffusions, (20) was associated with turmoil and bloody conflicts. (21) The proxy wars in Syria, Yemen, and Libya have increased the rivalry among the Middle Eastern countries. Moreover, the election of the hard-core conservative Donald Trump, and the shale revolution in the U.S. have changed the global perception towards the Middle East. (22) Furthermore, the sharp turnaround in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, following the announcement of Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) as crown prince, changed the coalitions in the region and redrew the political map in the Mediterranean.

In the middle of this, a cooperation opportunity arose with the discovery of offshore natural gas reserves in the East Mediterranean. (23) Many expect that this gas will strengthen the economic integration between allies and build confidence among disputants, which in turn will lead to greater stability in one of the most active political hot spots in the world. (24) However, others downgraded the idea of 'economic peace' since the approved discovered reserves cannot be considered seductive enough for all the parties to overcome their deep protracted conflicts. (25) They even assume that this gas will lead to more rivalry over the control of the reserves in the unclear offshore borders. (26)

Jordan cannot be isolated from what is happening in the Mediterranean region. Jordan has faced serious economic difficulties related to energy problems associated with the refugee crises and the interruption of Egyptian gas. (27) Due to its high dependency on imported energy, the Jordanian energy sector is extremely sensitive to the regional and International context. (28) The recently discovered Eastern Mediterranean gas can be an attractive energy resource for Jordan. Nonetheless, a fear of its influence on the Jordanian foreign policies in the Palestinian context has grown.

This article aims to investigate the impact of the recent developments in the Mediterranean region on the Jordanian energy sector. Moreover, it will discuss the potential consequences of signing a gas deal with Israel, on its energy security and foreign policy, especially its historic commitments towards the Palestinian cause. Initially, the study will compare the level of energy security in Jordan before and after the Arab uprising (the period 2010-2018) based on a proposed energy security framework. The results of the framework will be used to assess the potential impact of the Israeli gas deal on Jordanian energy security. Lastly, a semi-systematic literature review methodology will be used to discuss the potential ramifications of the gas deal on Jordanian foreign policy.

Energy in Jordan

Jordan is a Middle Eastern country with scarce fossil fuel resources. (29) When discussing energy in Jordan, four key points should be kept in mind. The first is that Jordan is a heavy energy importer. (30) The energy mix in Jordan is crucially dependent on fossil fuels (Graph 2). (31) Due to their scarce energy resources, Jordan imports almost all of its energy demands with the share of local resources in the total energy mix being very small. (32) Graph 3 shows the development of the share of domestic energy resources as a percentage of Jordan's total consumed energy from 2004 to 2018. Even with its recent increase, the domestic share is still less than 10 percent of the total energy demands.

Graph 2: Jordan's Primary Energy Demand (2018) Crude oil and petroluim products 54% Natural gas 35% Renewable energy 8% Coal 1% Coke 2% Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Jordan (33) Note: Table made from pie chart. The second is the high growth rate in energy demands, which reached 10 percent in recent years. (35) This growth rate is not accompanied by equivalent economic growth and the majority of this growth rate between 2011 and 2017 can be related to the large numbers of refugees, especially from Syria. (36) Graph 4 illustrates the primary energy demands in Jordan, which jumped by 30 percent between 2010 and 2016, with a maximum growth rate of 10 percent in 2012. (37) Additionally, Table 1 shows the development in some significant figures for the electricity sector between 2010 and 2018 according to the reports of National Electrical Power Company (NEPCO).

The third is Jordan's geographic proximity to energy exporters, mainly crude oil and natural gas. This gives Jordan easy access to energy sources and reduces the transportation costs. Jordan imports about 90 percent of crude oil and petroleum products from Saudi Arabia through the Aqaba oil port on...