Footloose Workers in Times of Calamities: A Case Study of the 2018 Kerala Floods.

• Author: Rajan, S. Irudaya
• Position: COMMENTARY

Climate-Induced Migration: The Indian Scenario

Climate-induced displacement and migration are widely discussed and debated across the globe; yet, there is no universally agreed definition of the phenomenon. Broadly, it refers to the movement of people driven by sudden or progressive changes in the weather or climate. (1) Indeed, while some research indicates that environmental disasters decrease migration, (2) others show that they increase migration, (3) or have no effect on it. (4) This also illustrates the complexity of the nexus between migration and environmental disasters. (5) A detailed study conducted by Suleri and Savage in 2006 found that the intensity of the environmental disaster determines its impact on migration; and appropriate measures can be taken through long and short-term initiatives since households suffer a loss of income due to the destruction of productive assets, the death or injury of wage earners, the loss of local jobs, the return of wage earners from distant cities, or the disruption of the flow of remittances.

The Climate Action Network South Asia and ActionAid joint report cautions that even if the targets and mitigation pledges on Greenhouse Gas emissions are met by the world nations, in the five South Asian nations (India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan) an approximate 37.5 million people would suffer displacement by 2030 and an estimated 62.9 million by 2050. Among the South-Asian countries, the disaster displacement level is the highest in India. (6) During the monsoons between 2008 and 2019, approximately 3.6 million people were displaced per annum in the country. By 2050, India is predicted to witness the displacement of 45 million people owing to climate change and natural disasters, which is thrice the current rate. (7) In India, the economic cost of environmental degradation is $80 billion per year (which is 5.7 percent of the 2009 GDP), and the natural calamities and disasters together result in a loss of 2 percent from its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually. (8)

The climate change-migration nexus is peculiarly complex in India, primarily due to the massive share of the population (9) depending on primary sector occupations like agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and allied industries, which are sensitive to climate change. The intersectional impacts of regional dynamics, socio-economic causes, and environmental issues create added vulnerability, forcing people to migrate. (10) A hundred million people, which is nearly 20 percent of India's labor force in any given year, is on the move within the country for employment reasons (11) and the remittance sent home by these internal migrants is about eight times more than the central government's budgetary allocations for education and health sectors combined. (12)

Given the complex, intertwined nature of climate change, natural calamities, and migration in India, specific policy interventions are vital. Watershed management, crop insurance, development of village industries to reduce the over-dependence on agricultural output for living, efforts to study and understand the possibility of climate-resilient farming, etc. are some of the initiatives that should be promoted. At destination locations, especially cities where laborers from rural areas migrate to, their healthy and safe living should be ensured. Proper documentation, ensuring their access to social security services and rations should be of top priority. Such interventions at both the source and destination locations are important to develop a sustainable migration system for a country, which is largely prone to natural calamities and highly dependent on inter-state migrants.

The Kerala Flood of 2018

The state of Kerala, in the Southwestern part of the Indian headland bordered by the Arabian Sea on its West and the Western Ghats to the East, has a land area of 38,868 km (2) and is densely populated with 819 people per km (2). (13) Known as the 'Gateway of the Summer Monsoon' in India, the state experiences a humid tropical climate, the dominant climatic phenomena being the South-West (June to September) and the North-East (October to December) monsoons. Due to its close proximity to the sea, with a coastline of nearly 600 km, and the presence of numerous rivers, lakes, backwaters, and estuaries, a considerable proportion of the total land area (14) is susceptible to floods and landslides. (15) Bhagat observes (16) that such phenomena are only projected to increase in the coming years, with India identified as one of the most vulnerable countries in the context of global climate change, and Kerala identified as a hotspot of climate change vulnerability within India. (17)

With an annual rainfall of approximately 300 cm received during a span of 6 months, Kerala records the highest monsoon rains in India. Home to over 50 dams and 44 rivers flowing through its territory and the torrential rains lasting from 2018 August 1 to 19, Kerala experienced its worst flooding since 1924. (18) The rainfall, 164 percent above the usual levels resulted in serious flooding and landslides, which caused severe damages across the state and killed 433 people. According to official statistics, the flood-affected 5.4 million of the population, spread across 775 villages, destroying many buildings: 1,186 completely and 19,588 partially. (19) Having displaced approximately 500,000 people and caused severe harm to roads, electric lines, and other infrastructural facilities, the damage that the flood created accounts for $4.4 billion. (20)

The Kerala floods remind us of the importance of updating water and disaster management schemes. Recently, the government has come up with initiatives such as the Dam Safety Bill 2018, which consists of these protocols and suggests setting up a Dam Safety Authority, a good step towards the impact of rainfall, are illegal stone quarrying, deforestation, sand mining, destruction of paddy fields, and unstable drainage patterns. (22)

Mismanagement of dams and the lack of proper Emergency Action Plans, which is a basic requirement for major dams worldwide, aggravated the situation further. In 2011, the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (WGEEP), a committee set up under the renowned ecologist Madhav Gadgil, suggested the classification of the...