European Union and Turkey in the post Arab Spring era: mapping strategic interests in the turbulent neighborhood.

• Author: Wodka, Jakub

The dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's and Turkey's "shared" neighbourhood redefined the premises on which the decades-long debate on further enlargement was based. Along with the Arab Spring and the eastern neighbourhood gradually drifting towards "soft" authoritarianism, crisis-struck Europe is challenged with a fundamental and in fact existential question "whither thou goest without Turkey?" prompting a new debate about the need to revive the membership negotiations.

No matter what shape the new EU will assume following the crisis, it is difficult to imagine a strong European Union without Turkey. As an EU member, Turkey could contribute a considerable economic, military, human potential, as well as global ambitions thanks to the well-exploited legacy of its imperial past. The location of Turkey, which used to be NATO's southern flank, is again becoming strategically important in the turbulent social and political transformations in the Arab world, as well as Russia's assertive policy in its "near abroad." Ankara's geopolitical choices are of key importance to the EU in view of Russia's attempts to rebuild its superpower status in the post-Soviet area, as well as in the Mediterranean. However, a Turkey that remains outside the EU has no reason to back European ambitions. Turkey's involvement in the EU's foreign and defence policies will be directly proportional to it being guaranteed a European perspective, however distant it may be. The prestigious status of candidate country strengthens Turkey's position in its neighbourhood. This explains why the Turks show reserve toward the EU proposals of "enhanced cooperation," "privileged partnership," or "strategic relations", which do not imply membership, and maintain skepticism toward EU's integration initiatives in the region, for example the Union for the Mediterranean.

If Europe's architecture is redesigned towards closer integration (EU of several circles), with far-reaching changes to the Union's structure and functioning, earlier predictions about the consequences of Turkey's accession to the EU could prove outdated. A multi-speed Union could bring Ankara closer to membership. One possible scenario envisions an "incremental" membership with the country moving through specific stages of integration, e.g. in the common market (the British model). In the long run, however, there arises a question as to how long and to what extent the ambitious Turkey will be willing to remain on the sidelines of the EU core decision-making processes. The most important dilemma for Ankara and the EU could be Turkey's membership in the eurozone, with all of its consequences.

For Turkey--notwithstanding its often ambivalent rhetoric--EU membership remains a civilization choice and a firm strategic objective that seals 150 years of Europeanization dating back to the Ottoman Empire. At the same time, it is one of the principal projects of the republican era. Being part of Europe is also a matter of prestige, image and--in line with Ataturk's legacy--a symbol of modernity. Instead of turning its back on the West, Turkey is reshaping its foreign policy by defining its strategic interests in broader terms. When Turkish politicians invoke the Ottoman heritage, they draw on the identity of a country that has chosen to be European, with its ancient and Byzantine legacy of the Empire, longstanding presence in European politics and its roots in the Mediterranean culture. The European model of development and civil liberties continues to be attractive for Turkish society, while Turkey's soft power in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia is sustained by Ankara's strong ties with the EU. The consolidation of its position in the neighbourhood is not so much a reflection of neo-Ottoman nostalgia, but a bargaining chip and a trump card in the country's path toward Europe.

Accordingly, it is the growing nationalism rather than the alleged Islamization that poses the real challenge. The process of Turkey's Europeanization is made more difficult because of the EU's ambivalence about Ankara's European aspirations combined with the weakness of the Turkish political system that hampers a transition from political hegemony to political competition. Equally important is the incompetence of the Kemalist opposition, which lacks a coherent programme and remains in thrall to its historical taboo. Its stance on the Armenian, Kurdish or Cypriot questions, the role of the army in the state, attachment to the concept of assertive secularism and exclusive concept of citizenship are all good cases in point. Meanwhile, it is in the EU's vital interest to forge the closest ties with an increasingly powerful Ankara, and to avoid the possibility of a "Gaullist" Turkey (1) exploiting, to the detriment of western interests, its assets as an ambivalent "global swing state." (2)

Geopolitics: Turkey as a Multi-regional Power

Turkey is situated in a region where the EU and Russian spheres of influence meet. Ukraine and the South Caucasus countries may be the EU's new eastern neighbours, but for Turkey they are old neighbours. It is the only country that can compete with Russia in trying to win over the hearts and minds of people in the post-Soviet region. For the local population, Ankara is tantamount with economic growth, visa liberalization, a main destination for job seekers, tourists, consumers, and small to mid size businesses. Turkey is also home to, among others, sizeable Abkhazian and North Caucasus diasporas, as evidenced by the integration of Adjara with the Black Sea coast of Turkey. Ankara is set to benefit from the democratization in this area, the extension of the European sphere of influence, the implementation of Southern Gas Corridor projects, and the resolution of frozen conflicts. Consequently, Ankara could become a valuable ally of the EU in resisting Russia's efforts to spread and consolidate its sphere of influence in the post-Soviet area.

Over the centuries, Turkey-Russia relations have been marked by wars and competition. Since 2000, Turkey and Russia have come closer together, but this development is better described as a tactical rapprochement rather than a strategic partnership. Ankara and Moscow are still more of natural rivals than regional allies. The two countries pursue diverging interests in their immediate neighborhoods, in such areas as security, energy, democratization, Karabach, Transnistria, the Balkans, Central Asia, and the eastern Mediterranean. Therefore, despite Russia's official backing of Ankara's European ambitions, the Kremlin sees Turkey as a potential threat to Russian interests in Eurasia. Even though both countries are wary of NATO's expanded presence in the region (albeit for different reasons), Turkey does not see the Black Sea region as possible Russian-Turkish condominium. Evidence of this is Ankara's involvement in the BLACKSEAFOR task force and the Black Sea Harmony operation; its support for or neutrality towards Euro-Atlantic aspirations and NATO membership of Black Sea countries; military trainings and bolstering democracy in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. One exception--and a potential sign for the West--is the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, a Turkish initiative to solve the Georgia-Russia conflict that excludes the EU and the US.

Turkey's ambivalence about initiatives undertaken by the West in the region stems from Ankara's unwillingness to alienate Moscow. Turkey-Russia relations are asymmetrical, with Russia trying to make Turkey dependent on its energy resources. Turkey needs the West to counterbalance its relations with Russia. It is no coincidence that the problems in EU-Turkey relations benefit mostly Moscow, which instrumentalizes the Cyprus issue to hamper Ankara's EU aspirations. Turkey is concerned about the rise in its neighborhood of a new integration entity with Moscow as its centre, Russia's increased military presence in the Black Sea basin (the Russian fleet's stationing in Sevastopol extended until 2042 and the purchase of French-made Mistral ships) and in the Northern Caucasus. Ankara is wary of the suspension of the CFE, and the failure to implement decisions concerning the withdrawal from Georgia and Moldova, which were reached at the 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul. In response to Turkey's decision to place elements of missile defence at the Kurecik-Malatya military base, Russia threatened to deploy its missiles in the Northern Caucasus. Moreover, the two countries take completely opposing stances on the Syrian conflict. Turkey's closer ties with the West bolster the country's standing in relations with the stronger partner.

In view of their overlapping neighborhoods, the EU and Turkey should synchronize their policies. The Balkans and the Caucasus could serve as a laboratory for taking effective joint actions. The EU's and Turkey's interests converge on both counts. The Turkish policy in these regions is aimed at conflict resolution and mediation, promoting stability (Ankara's participation in EU missions, the work of the Diyanet, and military training), and linking these areas to Europe. Ankara's strategy in the Balkans corresponds well with EU goals, such as consolidating Kosovo's independence or stabilizing Bosnia. One of the challenges facing Turkey is to demystify the Ottoman rule in the region, as to how it is remembered ("the Ottoman yoke"). The recent rediscovery and revalorization of the Ottoman past in Turkey as well as in the Balkans countries could enhance Turkey's standing in the region, as well as its European credentials.

Linking Turkey permanently to Europe would also contribute in a major way to stabilizing the Middle East, while EU policy towards Turkey is important in the context of the strategic dimension of Europe's relations with Arab Mediterranean countries. What makes relations with Turkey very significant is the fact that the country can serve as a transition role model for...