Energy Supply Security and Artificial Intelligence Applications.

• Author: Tur, Mehmet Rida
• Position: ARTICLE

Introduction

Energy supply (ES) is a comprehensive concept that includes four important elements such as the availability, accessibility, and economic and sustainability of the energy source, and the existence of this basic element ensures energy supply security (ESS). (1) The energy market maintains its strategic importance all over the world as one of the most important supporters of economic and social development. (2) There are key indicators in the market such as energy consumption per capita, energy intensity as an indicator of energy efficiency, and carbon intensity of ES, which differ significantly between developed and developing countries. Smart Grids (SG) make great contributions to ES, which increases the importance of today's very important mega-trends such as climate change, electrification, industry 4.0, and efforts to make the energy sector more efficient, competitive, and sustainable. In this direction, the importance of public-industry interaction in the new period has been better understood and concepts such as better regulation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have begun to be implemented.

Turkiye's energy demand is developing in parallel with its growing economy. While the annual electrical energy demand in the world increased by 3 percent on average between 2000 and 2020, this rate was approximately 4.5 percent in the country. (3) To safely meet this high demand growth is a key priority of energy policy. According to the Presidential 2022 Annual Program, Turkiye'sinstalled power was expected to reach 100,607 MW at the end of 2021and 102,423 MW by the end of 2022. Turkiye does not have rich reserves in terms of fossil fuels, excluding lignite and newly discovered natural gas in the Sakarya field, the import rate of primary energy resources in 2019 was 69 percent. In 2019, the share in the supply of primary energy resources was 25.7 percent natural gas, 28.6 percent oil, 29.1 percent coal, and 16.6 percent renewable resources. The main aim of the program is to continuously provide ES with high-quality, sustainable, safe, and bearable costs, the most optimal control of which is possible with AI-based models. (4)

The concept of AI is that computers accurately and speedily do the work of humans. Machine learning, a broad sub-base of AI, is concerned with the design and development of algorithms and methods that enable computers to 'learn.' (5) The concept of learning means the software will make changes to the system that allow it to do the same job more efficiently next time. Generally, there are two types of inductive learning and deductive learning. The inductive machine learning method extracts rules and patterns from very large datasets. The foundation of machine learning is to calculate information from data and automatically extract it using statistical methods. Therefore, machine learning is directly related to data mining and statistics. (6) In the literature, supply reliability is generally provided by deterministic methods, and the control is made with autonomous machines. However, in this study, it is advocated to control with the AI approach in providing this security, which presents the necessity of a system that can control and make decisions in the face of unexpected events. In this study, general data and comparative analysis of installed power and production are presented in the second part. In the third part, the basic principle and requirements of energy supply security are expressed. Finally, the studies of AI as supportive methods of ES security are explained, and the dynamics of the power system have been determined.

Installed Capacity, Generation, Consumption, and Foreign Trade of Electricity

The widespread use of clean energy technologies and, in this context, renewable resources, on the one hand, increases the rate of access to energy due to political engagements and economic developments for the realization of global sustainable development goals, on the other hand, it increases the network expansion and modernization requirements in almost every country. Figure 1 (7) shows the change in global annual net electricity capacity increases in gigawatts from 2020 to 2021.

In the period 2001-2019, the rate of electricity generation from natural gas in Turkey was between 30 and 50 percent. The share of natural gas in electricity production was 23.1 percent in 2020, and this rate is expected to rise to approximately 30.6 percent in 2022. Of the natural gas consumed in 2020, 28 percent was used in electricity generation, 26 percent in industry, and 46 percent for heating houses and other sectors. The installed power based on electricity generation from natural gas was 25,733 GW at the end of 2021 and it is calculated that it will decrease to 25,108 GW at the end of 2022. In this context, no increase is planned in the installed power of the thermal power plant.

While the installed power of domestic coal in Turkiye in 2020 was 11,336 GW, it is expected to remain the same at the end of 2022. Imported coal capacity was expected to remain constant at 10,307 GW in the 2021-2022 period. Within the scope of the national energy and mining policy, studies are continuing to increase the use of domestic coal. In this context, the use of large lignite reserves in electricity generation.

Turkiye is very rich in terms of hydroelectric resources and hydraulic power plants (HEPPs) have the highest annual average electricity generation share with 53,053 GWh at the end of 2021. With the Yusufeli Dam and HPP project, which will be the country's first and the world's third-highest dam when completed, the HPP installed power is expected to increase to 32,228 MW. In addition, rehabilitation investments continue in Keban, Karakaya, and Hirfanli HPPs, which are publicly operated dams, to increase efficiency and availability.

Recently, the share of electricity generation based on wind energy in the field of renewable energy in Turkiye is at high levels. While the installed power capacity was 8,832 GW at the end of 2020, the average electricity production in this period was 24,828 GWh. In 2021, it was expected that the installed power of wind energy would be 10,100 MW and its production would be 29,137 GWh. It is foreseen to reach 10,900 MW installed power capacity in 2022. (9)

Turkiye is one of the most efficient regions in Europe in terms of solar energy.It was calculated that the installed power would reach 7,750 MW and the average generation power would be 13,211 GWh by the end of 2021. It is planned to reach 8,750 MW by the end of 2022.

The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which will be the nation's first nuclear power plant and whose foundation was set in 2018, is still being built. The power plant, which is expected to meet approximately 10 percent of Turkiye's electricity needs when completed, will consist of 4 units. The first unit of the power plant will be commissioned in 2023 and each unit will have an installed power of 1,200 MW and a total installed power of 4,800 MW. In addition to Akkuyu, research is ongoing in areas including site selection, location licensing, and collaboration with tech firms or nations for the construction of two more nuclear power stations. It was predicted that the installed power of geothermal, biomass and waste heat would increase to 3,435 MW at the end of 2021 and 3,536 MW at the end of 2022. The share of renewable energy sources in meeting electricity consumption was expected to be 35 percent in 2021. The low production in hydroelectric power plants due to drought plays a decisive role in this rate. It is predicted that this rate will increase to 40 percent in 2022. (10)

The diversification of primary energy sources, the decrease in reliance on foreign sources, and the improvement of energy efficiency through resource management are all covered under ESS policies. As a result, the goal is to provide a consistent and affordable supply of energy and raw materials.

Energy Supply Security

It is necessary to define ESS to make the subject clear and to determine the scope of the future analyses we will make. At this point, several different definitions can be mentioned. It is important to remember that the definition of ESS has evolved while coming up with these definitions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines ESS as "the uninterrupted availability of energy resources at an affordable price." (11) According to the IEA, ESS has many dimensions. Long-term ESS means "investments made mainly to provide ES in line with economic development and environmental needs." On the other hand, short-term ESS is the ability to respond quickly to sudden changes in the supply-demand balance. (12) A definition of "supplying sufficient quality and clean energy at affordable prices and uninterruptedly" states that energy should be clean as well as sufficient. (13) In another study on Developing an Energy Security Index and assessing the ESS of East Asian Countries, ESS is defined as securing the amount of energy required for people's lives, economic, social, and defense activities, among other purposes, at a reasonable price level. (14)

Energy imports constitute approximately one-fourth of Turkiye's total annual imports. This one-quarter of energy import items corresponds to three-quarters of the country's energy needs. Insufficient oil and natural gas reserves in Turkiye, insufficient use of renewable and alternative sources, and energy efficiency studies which have not been carried out effectively until recently all lead to this high foreign dependency in primary ES.

Meeting the energy need of a country is a roadmap that should be realized by taking into account many factors (such as society, technology, economy, and environment). Long-term energy planning is a strategic approach to how a nation will make structural changes that will affect its supply and demand, and it is also the guarantee of sustainable development. (15) An...