A Comparative Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy on the Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflicts (1988-2020).

• Author: Oztig, Lacin Idil

Introduction

After a brief overview of independence following First World War, Azerbaijan and Armenia became Soviet republics from 1922 until 1991. The Soviet Union's territorial policies created the background condition of the ethnic conflict between both countries. (1) With the 1921 Treaty of Moscow, Nakhchivan, which consisted of an Azerbaijani majority, was declared an autonomous region within the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic. With this treaty, the Soviet Union and Turkiye assumed guarantor roles in the protection of the territorial integrity of Nakhchivan. (2) The status of Nakhchivan as an autonomous region under the protection of Azerbaijan as well as guarantor countries was confirmed in the 1921 Treaty of Kars signed between Turkiye, Azerbaijan Armenia, and Georgia. (3) Nakhchivan became an exclave after it was removed from Azerbaijan's borders following the transfer of Zangezur to the Armenian Soviet Republic in 1921. (4)

The status of Nagorno-Karabakh was a debated issue within the Soviet leadership in the 1920s. Soviet authorities weighed in on the strong economic relationship between Karabakh and Azerbaijan and the benefits of having good diplomatic relations with Turkiye. (5) They recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as an inseparable part of Azerbaijan. In 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region was created as part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. (6) The Nagorno-Karabakh region (which consisted of a Karabakh Armenian majority) was created inside Azerbaijan in 1923. Even though an Armenian party elite was attributed the right to administer the region, they were not able to practice real autonomy. (7)

The mid-1960s witnessed Armenian irredentist nationalism, the driving force of which was Soviet Armenia. (8) Mikhail Gorbachev's reformist policies presented Armenians with a unique opportunity to mobilize support for territorial revisionism regarding Nakhchivan and Nagorno-Karabakh. (9) In other words, during this period, Armenian irredentist nationalism evolved into a mass Karabakh movement focused on "the unification of the ancestral Armenian lands" (Miatsum). (10) A petition prepared by the Armenian Academy of Sciences in 1987 that demanded the transfer of Karabakh and Nakhchivan to the Armenian Soviet Republic rekindled the territorial aspirations of the Armenians. (11) Even though Gorbachev is known to have been sympathetic to the Armenian cause, he maintained the status quo policies of his predecessors. (12)

The incongruence between the territorial borders and ethnic dynamics created the background condition of the conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia. (13 )The Soviet Union was established as "a hierarchical federation of ethnically defined territories." (14) It consisted of Soviet republics, autonomous Soviet republics

(such as Nakhchivan), autonomous regions or oblasts (such as Nagorno-Karabakh) autonomous areas (Okrugi). (15) The Soviet ethno-territorial federalism aimed to create a Soviet identity. In other words, the Soviet authorities believed in the idea that under socialism, nations would grow closer and eventually merge into one identity. (16) Quite the contrary, Soviet policies instigated polarization along ethnic, linguistic, and cultural lines. (17)

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relative stability in the Caucasus region during the Cold War period dissolved into instability and conflicts. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which started in 1988, evolved into a full-scale war in 1992. The Nakhchivan conflict erupted in the same year, following Armenian militias' attack on Nakhchivan (an autonomous territory within Azerbaijan). With the signing of the ceasefire agreement in 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh turned into a frozen conflict. After a period of sporadic clashes, it again erupted as a full-scale war in 2020.

This article compares Turkiye's position on the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Nakhchivan conflict, and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and discusses its impacts and implications by taking into consideration the regional dynamics. This article is organized as follows. The first section provides an overview of Azerbaijan-Armenian conflicts. The second section sheds light on how Turkish policymakers formulated foreign policy in each conflict by considering political, military, and mediation dynamics. The third section is devoted to the comparative analysis of Turkiye's foreign policy during the conflict periods. The final discussion analyses the role of Turkiye in the Caucasus region against the backdrop of the changing power balance in the region.

An Overview of Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflicts

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War

In 1988, mass protests erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh, calling for the region to join the Armenian Soviet Republic. These protests triggered clashes between Azeris and Armenians. The Regional Soviet of Nagorno-Karabakh applied to the Soviet authorities to break away from the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic to join the Armenian Soviet Republic. The Armenian Supreme Soviet voted to accept Nagorno-Karabakh's joining Armenia. The Azerbaijani Supreme Soviet voted not to relinquish the region. In 1989, the Karabakh Armenians created an unofficial National Council to govern the region, which was evaluated as a direct threat to the Soviet and Azeri authorities. (18) Violence against the Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh increased, which sparked mass protests in Baku. (19)

The Constitution of the Soviet Union prevented territorial changes without the consent of the affected Union Republic. The Soviet authorities rejected the demands of the Karabakh Armenians and placed the region under Moscow's direct rule in January 1989. They aimed to prevent inter-republican border revisions that could put the federal structure of the Soviet Union at risk. After three months, Moscow returned control of the region to local authorities. (20) In the aftermath of Moscow's intervention, Azeri refugees, who fled to Azerbaijan during the clashes, returned to Nagorno-Karabakh. (21)

The involvement of the Soviet authorities did not end the conflict. After Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent republics, the conflict intensified. (22) In 1991, Azerbaijan passed a law that abolished the autonomous status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In response, Karabakh Armenians voted for independence in a referendum. Yet, 25 percent of Azeris that made up the population in Nagorno-Karabakh boycotted it. (23) Following the referendum, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region declared its independence from Azerbaijan and the establishment of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. (24)

With the independence of Azerbaijan and Armenia, a domestic dispute within the Soviet Union became an interstate dispute. The clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region developed into a full-scale war in 1992. (25) Azeri forces increased retaliatory attacks against Armenian forces. They recaptured northern Nagorno-Karabakh, which led thousands of Karabakh Armenians to seek refuge in Armenia. (26)

After Azeris fired rockets on Armenian villages in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians seized the Azeri town of Khojali in the region and killed hundreds of people. Azerbaijan declared a three-day morning period over the Khojali massacre. (27) The massacre prompted international condemnation. After Armenian militias seized Shusha in 1992, the only remaining Azeri stronghold in the region, Armenia was able to take control of the whole enclave. (28) All of the Azeris were forced out of the region. (29) With the seizure of the Azerbaijan city of Lachin, which is located on the edge of Nagorno-Karabakh, a corridor was opened between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. (30)

In 1992, the Minsk Group was established under the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) (renamed Organization for Security and Cooperation in 1994) to provide a peaceful resolution to the Karabakh conflict. The co-chairs of the Minsk Group are Russia, the U.S., and France. (31) A year later, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 822, which called for a ceasefire. (32) In 1993, the Azeri-Armenian conflict went beyond Karabakh as Armenian militants seized the Azeri-populated provinces near the Karabakh region: the rest of Lachin province and Kelbajar, Agdam, Qubatli, Jebrayil, Fizuli, Zangelan, and part of Agjabedi and Terter provinces. As a result of these operations, more than half a million Azeris were displaced. (33)

In May 1994, the Bishkek Protocol (a provisional ceasefire agreement) was signed by the representatives of Azerbaijan, Armenia, the (unrecognized) Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and Russia's representative to the OSCE Minsk Group. The ceasefire was brokered by Russia in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan's capital. The protocol stipulated the end of hostilities and the continuation of peaceful meetings for the resolution of the conflict. The signing of the protocol did not lead to the demilitarization of the region, the return of Azerbaijani territory occupied by Armenia, or the return of refugees. (34) In the aftermath of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, 20 percent of the Azeri territory fell under the Armenian occupation. (35) Some 700,000 Azeris (which account for 10 percent of Azerbaijan's population) became displaced in the region. (36) Throughout the war, the Republic of Armenia increased repression of Azeris within its borders and expelled 250,000 Azeris. (37)

With the absence of a peace agreement, the conflict became a frozen conflict. A peace proposal provided by the Minsk Group after the OSCE Lisbon Submit in 1996 that contained a provision regarding the granting of Nagorno-Karabakh a self-rule Azerbaijan was rejected by Armenia. The Minsk Group's 1997 proposal that contained provisions regarding the withdrawal of Armenian forces was rejected by the Karabakh administration. Another Minsk Group proposal in 1998 that suggested granting Nagorno-Karabakh de-facto independence was rejected by the Azeri side. (38) Other...