Clashing Interests in the Eastern Mediterranean: What About Turkey?

• Author: Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe
• Position: ARTICLE

Introduction

Today's understanding of the concept of energy security relies on a more structured framework, as compared to that of previous decades. Following its emergence in the aftermath of the 1970s oil crises, the understanding of energy security was mainly centered around the concerns about security of supply, more specifically the impact of price on the. (1) Like many other commodities in the world, there was greater interest in energy security when energy prices were high, and less when they were low, such as the period from the late 1980s to the late 1990s. Nevertheless, the limited availability of fossil fuel reserves, especially oil, and later, natural gas, and their concentration in areas such as the Middle East, Africa, and Russia; has triggered a high level of dependency on these regions for both developed and developing countries lacking sufficient reserves, thus jeopardizing their security of supply. The geopolitical changes in the world after the end of the Cold War broadened the concept of energy security, such that explaining it only in terms of the security of supply is no longer adequate.

Increasing uncertainty in energy-producing countries and regions and the growing risk of terrorism brought the issue of energy infrastructure safety into the matrix. As demonstrated by previous research evaluating the nature of terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure, the world has experienced almost 5,000 such terrorist attacks in more than 90 countries since the 1970s. (2)

A further concern that deserves attention is the impact of emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil, and Russia, and fast-growing economies such as Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Korea on global demand. Like developed economies, these countries are highly dependent on energy supply, particularly fossil fuels. In comparison to low-income economies, where more than 50 percent of total energy is consumed by households, the emerging and fast-growing economies have higher shares of industrial consumption, translating into massive energy demand. (3) Hence, the increasing demand arising from such countries also poses a threat to contemporary global energy security, highlighting the role of energy demand against security of supply.

Another significant component of energy security emanates from geopolitical rivalries and risks. As argued by the present author, (4) global geopolitics is rapidly shifting due to economic and political crises and conflicts at the national, regional, and global levels, mainly arising from power politics. However, one can no longer limit the dynamics of power politics to the classical understanding of realpolitik, which is the result of the anarchical international system. Today, it is no longer plausible to argue that power politics involves only, or even mainly, states. It is important to consider other stakeholders, for instance, energy corporations such as Chevron, BP, Gazprom, Eni, and Shell; international organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and international regimes and institutions that regulate energy markets and trade and determine environmental standards, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNF-CCC), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the Energy Charter Treaty. The involvement of non-state stakeholders makes power politics more complex and changeable, creating greater geopolitical risks and involving many diverse interests. (5)

Nor should the contemporary approach to energy security ignore environmental concerns, especially considering the climate change and global warming now being experienced globally. (6) As argued by many, the environmental challenges that we are experiencing today are the result of record levels of fossil fuel consumption. Despite all efforts to reduce it, the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption in 2018 was 85 percent. (7) Efforts to decrease the share of fossil fuels, stemming from a growing awareness of environmental issues, began in the 1990s with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, led by European countries. Although frequently criticized, the Kyoto Protocol was an important first step, leading eventually to the Paris Agreement of today. The main target of these agreements is simply to decrease the current level of carbon emissions, caused mainly by fossil fuel consumption. (8)

As a result, previous definitions of the energy security concept, such as the IEA's, which consider only availability and price, are no longer sufficient to address contemporary challenges. (9) Conversely, the European Commission's conceptualization, encompassing all political, economic, security, environmental, and socio-demographic factors, concisely addresses all challenges: "[the] strategy for energy supply security must be geared to ensuring, for the well-being of its citizens and the proper functioning of the economy, the uninterrupted physical availability of energy products on the market, at a price which is affordable for all consumers, while respecting environmental concerns and looking towards sustainable development." (10)

Growing Global Interest in Natural Gas: The Energy Security Perspective

As mentioned in the preceding section, high dependency levels and the increasing global pressure related to environmental concerns have led countries to prioritize increasing alternative energy sources in their energy mix to replace oil and coal. At this point, natural gas emerged as a strong alternative, as an efficient and reliable source less harmful to the environment. (11) Low natural gas prices, especially in the 1990s and early 2000s, allowed its wider spread among consumer countries. Today, natural gas accounts for 24 percent of global energy consumption, the third highest share following oil and coal. (12) Global consumption has almost doubled in three decades from 1,948 bcm in 1990 to 3,848 bcm in 2018. (13) Initially, the main demand originated from OECD countries such as the United States (U.S.), Germany, Turkey, Italy, and South Korea; however, today, due to issues such as air pollution, high levels of economic growth, and increasing energy needs, many non-OECD countries are also consuming higher levels. For instance, China's natural gas consumption has increased almost six-fold in only 13 years, from 47 bcm in 2005 to 283 bcm in 2018. Today, the U.S. is the leading producer, accounting for 21.5 percent of global production, followed by Russia, Iran, and Qatar accounting for 17 percent, 6 percent, and 4.5 percent, respectively. In terms of exports, Russia is the main exporter of piped gas and Qatar is the main exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounting for 223 bcm and 105 bcm, respectively. (14)

Natural gas is rapidly increasing in terms of demand and production, but its transportation is more difficult compared to other fossil fuels. Currently, there are only two feasible transportation methods: via pipelines or by transporting LNG by vessels. (15) Both require significant infrastructure or equipment investments, which few countries and energy companies can afford. There are also several challenges to natural gas supply, such as the increase in global demand, unstable prices, lack of diversification, dependence on a single supplier, as well as political, legal, and economic problems in both producing regions and transit countries. (16) As a result, there is intense rivalry over the world's tapped and untapped natural gas resources.

With its considerable natural gas reserves, the Eastern Mediterranean region has recently emerged as one of the pivotal foci of international affairs with the convergence of political, economic, and geostrategic dynamics. The region has become the point of intersection for regional actors such as Turkey, Greece, Israel, and Egypt; major energy market players such as BP, ENI, Total, and Exxon; and countries in need of energy supply, such as EU member countries and Turkey.

The main challenge associated with the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas is the position of the reserves in the Mediterranean Sea and the consequent ownership problem among its littoral states. This problem becomes even more critical when one considers the de facto division of, and dispute over, the island of Cyprus. At this point, there are two key issues: (1) which countries have ownership rights, and (2) which countries will be the natural gas transit countries. The countries that are able to control the production and exports are most likely to wield the greatest influence, both in the region and globally.

Power Politics in the Eastern Mediterranean

Although the littoral states in the Eastern Mediterranean seek to achieve their targets through the pursuit of their national interests, which include the ownership, exploration, exploitation, and transportation of the resources, they have also created a common institutionalized formation, establishing Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) as a first step. This institutionalized framework is planned to be centered around geopolitical interests, joint economic and trade benefits, and the energy security of the parties involved--Egypt, Greece, the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA), Israel, Jordan, and Italy at the state level, excluding Turkey and the the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), and including the support of the EU and U.S. (17) The next step is to elevate the EMGF to an international organization and to extend it through the formation of partnerships with the energy industry.

Among developments that may have contributed the establishment of the EMGF are (1) the gas export agreement between Egypt and Israel, (2) the trilateral meeting between the GCA, Greece, and Egypt in Crete, (3) the increasing Turkish drilling activities in the region, (4) the strengthening of the strategic relationship between Israel...