After Aleppo: The long game in Syria.

• Author: Lesch, David W.
• Position: COMMENTARY - Essay

ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the victory by pro-Syrian government forces in Aleppo in December 2016, many see an opportunity for a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. Although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for the time being seems to have secured his position in power, there remains much work to be done in order to bring Syria back to life again after the deep level of disruption and destruction. No less work is needed to create a vision for the future of Syria that will appeal to a critical mass of Syrian opposition elements and pro-Syrian government constituencies. This essay details how far Syria has to travel in terms of becoming a functioning state again as well as potential options for a workable and sustainable political system into the future.

In an interview with French media published in early January, following his government's forces re-taking of east Aleppo from opposition elements, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated that this success signaled a "tipping point in the course of the war" and that his government was "on the way to victory."

But what is "victory"? Is it merely staying in power and holding onto what many have called "useful Syria," i.e. the line of cities from Aleppo in the north down through Hama, Homs, and Damascus along with the Syrian Mediterranean coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus? From this position, the Syrian regime might then hope to gradually take over other parts of the country, the majority of which, territorially speaking, is still held by the ISIS, the YPG, and some remaining Syrian opposition armed groups. The idea might be that Assad's Russian allies as well as the U.S.-led coalition will continue to whittle down the ISIS, eventually liberating Raqqa itself, the ISIS' de facto capital. The YPG might then be boxed in and prevented from expanding beyond the territory it already controls in northern and northeastern Syria by a combination of Syrian government forces south of YPG territory, and by the Turks, whose recent rapprochement with Moscow may sacrifice the YPG on the altar of Ankara's grudging acceptance of Assad's continuation in power, as well as its diminished support for Syrian opposition groups. With the takeover of Aleppo, along with the tenuous cessation of hostilities negotiated by Russia, Turkey, and Iran this past December, it is certainly more than likely that Bashar al-Assad and the regime he oversees will continue to govern Syria into the foreseeable future.

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But then what? Even under this rosiest of scenarios from the point of view of Damascus, without true political restructuring combined with a comprehensive rebuilding effort, such a "victory" might only be a stay of execution from the inevitable. Indeed, true political reform may be the only thing that opens the spigot of international largesse that will be necessary to rebuild Syria. Without these things, Syria may become a state such as Somalia, where the central government may reign but doesn't really rule. The Syrian government may have a representative to the United Nations and embassies in some countries; it may stamp passports and print currency, but little else. This is hardly a state. Under these conditions, regional powers will continue to interfere in various parts of Syria, essentially dividing it into spheres of influence that will result in a barely functioning, patchwork state that remains a source of instability in the heartland of the Middle East.

The Challenges

The challenges facing the Syrian government moving forward are staggering. Even though the following statistics are estimates, they will, if anything, only get worse with the continuing matrix of wars in the country. (1) More than 80 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line. According to a 2016 report, nearly 70 percent of Syrians live in extreme poverty, meaning they cannot secure their basic needs. The unemployment rate is close to 58 percent, with a significant number of those employed (at least a third according to UN officials) working in the war economy as smugglers, fighters, or arms dealers, etc. Those invested in the war economy, who exist on all sides of the conflict, are going to be difficult to pry away from their current careers toward something more productive and peaceful.

Life expectancy has dropped by twenty years since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011. About half of school-age children no longer attend school--a lost generation in the making. The country has become a public health nightmare. Diseases formerly under control, such as typhoid, tuberculosis, Hepatitis A and cholera, are once again endemic. And polio, previously eradicated in Syria, has been reintroduced, probably by fighters imported from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Upward of 500,000 Syrians have been killed in the war, and an untold number of Syrians have died indirectly from the conflict, such as those who could not receive kidney dialysis because the hospitals have been destroyed, those who needed vital medicines that were unavailable, those who required immediate medical...